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Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Quarterfinals (Women's Singles)
polymarket
kalshi

Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Quarterfinals (Women's Singles)

Volume:
$59,233

Coco Gauff

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 10:49 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Coco Gauff

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,472
N/A
N/A
$7,296
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Coco Gauff

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Karolina Muchova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,917
N/A
N/A
$3,917
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Karolina Muchova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$159
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marta Kostyuk

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,510
N/A
N/A
$3,510
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Marta Kostyuk

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Linda Noskova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,476
N/A
N/A
$3,476
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jessica Pegula

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jessica Pegula

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$483
N/A
N/A
$445
Settled
No
polymarket

Naomi Osaka

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Naomi Osaka

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$207
Settled
No
polymarket

Linda Noskova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jasmine Paolini

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jasmine Paolini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
polymarket

Elise Mertens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Elina Svitolina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Elina Svitolina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
kalshi

Emma Raducanu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,168
N/A
N/A
$1,700
Settled
No
polymarket

Emma Raducanu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ashlyn Krueger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amanda Anisimova

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Amanda Anisimova

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Iryna Shymanovich

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mirra Andreeva

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mirra Andreeva

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$947
N/A
N/A
$947
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 153

Description

This event group tracks whether specific female tennis players will advance to the Quarterfinals at Wimbledon 2026. Kalshi's market resolves YES if any of 23 named players reaches the Semifinals (which guarantees Quarterfinal qualification), while Polymarket offers individual binary markets for 129 players asking whether each will reach the Quarterfinals. The core question is identical across platforms: did the player advance past the Round of 16?

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves on Semifinal qualification (top 4 finalists), while Polymarket's markets resolve on Quarterfinal qualification (top 8). These are distinct tournament stages with different probabilities and outcomes.Hero tip: Kalshi's YES outcome is a strict subset of Polymarket's YES outcomes. A Quarterfinal appearance alone does NOT trigger Kalshi YES. Only players who advance to the Semifinals (win their Quarterfinal match) will resolve Kalshi to YES. Price Kalshi substantially lower than Polymarket equivalents for the same player.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if any of 23 named players qualifies for the Semifinals. This is a single aggregate market covering multiple players with a Semifinal threshold (top 4). Key Quote: 'If [Player] qualifies for the Semifinals at the 2026 Wimbledon Women Singles tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if the listed player clinches a spot in the Quarterfinals (top 8). Each player has an individual binary market. Resolves NO if the player is eliminated before the Quarterfinals or if the tournament is cancelled/postponed after July 26, 11:59 PM ET. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the listed player clinches a spot in the Quarterfinals in the Championships at Wimbledon per Wimbledon rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Quarterfinals in the Championships at Wimbledon per Wimbledon rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Quarterfinals in the Championships at Wimbledon (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled, postponed after July 26, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Quarterfinals have not been officially confirmed by Wimbledon within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and WTA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Qualification for the 2026 Wimbledon Women Singles Semifinals is determined by tournament progression through the draw. A player's advancement to the Semifinal round triggers a Yes resolution for their corresponding market. Qualification status is established independently of match participation; a player who qualifies but subsequently withdraws or is unable to compete still satisfies the resolution criteria. Resolution is based solely on whether the player reaches the Semifinal stage of the tournament.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price uncertainty differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous order-book pricing. On this market, traders directly stake capital on outcomes, creating incentives for accurate pricing. Sportsbooks may lag or lead depending on sharp action and public sentiment, but prediction markets often reflect faster information incorporation once volume builds. Comparing the two reveals whether consensus favors one player's quarterfinal chances over the other's implied probability.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity pools. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract different trader demographics—some favor one venue's interface or fee structure. Order-book depth and recent trade flow also vary; a large bet on one platform can move its price faster than the other. Additionally, each platform's rules on market resolution timing and data sources can subtly influence how traders price tail risks. Monitoring both venues helps you spot mispricings and understand where smart money is positioning ahead of the tournament.

Player injuries, withdrawals, and recent form on grass courts will drive significant repricing. Seeding announcements and draw composition—especially favorable or brutal matchups—often trigger sharp moves. Off-court news, coaching changes, and performance at warm-up tournaments leading into Wimbledon can shift trader conviction. Major upsets in earlier rounds may cascade into quarterfinal odds as favorites fall or underdogs gain credibility. Betting syndicates and professional traders often accumulate positions weeks before the event, so unusual volume spikes can signal informed positioning on specific players' chances.