TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by March 31?
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the March 31, 2026, exchange rate data is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if the exchange rate exceeds any of ten different thresholds on March 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, creating ten overlapping binary markets. Polymarket uses a different source (Bonbast free-market rate vs. unspecified official rate), different timing (any day between market creation and March 31 vs. a single point-in-time on March 31), and opposite directional logic (some markets require the rate to fall below a threshold, others to reach above it). This makes cross-platform arbitrage impossible and exposes traders to contradictory settlement outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are fungible. A YES bet on Kalshi's 1.5M threshold market will NOT hedge a Polymarket position on the same nominal rate, because Kalshi measures a single snapshot on March 31 at 10:00 AM ET while Polymarket measures any intraday high or low across the entire period. Additionally, Polymarket's Bonbast source (free-market toman converted to rials) may diverge significantly from Kalshi's undisclosed official rate source. Verify your source preference and timing window before entering any position.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi publishes ten separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the USD/IRR exchange rate published on March 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET exceeds a specific threshold (1,000,000, 1,100,000, 1,200,000, 1,300,000, 1,400,000, 1,500,000, 1,600,000, 1,700,000, 1,850,000, or 2,000,000 rials per USD). Resolution is based on a single point-in-time snapshot at 10:00 AM ET on the specified date. Source is not explicitly named.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket publishes five separate binary markets with mixed directional logic. Markets 1, 6, 7, 8 resolve YES if the Bonbast free-market USD exchange rate falls to or below a threshold (1.5M, 1.6M, 1.3M, 1.4M rials respectively) on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026. Markets 3, 5, 9, 10 resolve YES if the rate reaches or exceeds a threshold (1.8M, 1.7M, 1.6M, 1.5M rials respectively) on any day in the same window. Bonbast publishes prices in toman (1 toman = 10 rials), and resolution uses the finalized daily rate once the following day's figure is released.
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