TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 23, 2:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Top Esports's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the Top Esports Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Top_Esports) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: 369, ZUIAN, Tian, Creme, JackeyLove, and fengyue. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Top Esports's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the Top Esports Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Top_Esports) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: 369, ZUIAN, Tian, Creme, JackeyLove, and fengyue. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate under different models. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating sharp-money signals but ultimately controlling the line. Prediction markets like this one rely on decentralized trader consensus—participants directly stake capital on outcomes, creating odds that reflect aggregate belief rather than a bookmaker's margin. This market's odds emerge from continuous trading rather than a centralized pricing desk, which can lead to faster incorporation of breaking news about team rosters and personnel moves.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the real-time probability assigned by the market; as traders adjust their positions based on new information about Top Esports' roster plans, the odds shift accordingly. Liquidity pools enable continuous trading without requiring a counterparty to be standing by, allowing participants to enter and exit positions at transparent, algorithmically determined prices.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market. Official announcements from Top Esports management regarding roster plans would have immediate impact. Player performance at major tournaments, injuries, or contract disputes could increase pressure for changes. Esports transfer window activity, rival team signings, or coaching staff decisions may signal broader organizational shifts. Social media hints from players or team officials, management interviews, or leaked roster discussions could also drive trading volume and repricing. Any credible reporting about tryouts, negotiations, or internal restructuring would likely trigger significant movement before the September deadline.