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Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
polymarket
kalshi

Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?

Volume:
$210,029

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

 - Kalshi

Andrea Kimi Antonelli - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 2:03 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,167
N/A
N/A
$19,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

George Russell

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,153
N/A
N/A
$15,007
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lando Norris

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,860
N/A
N/A
$8,835
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?

View
100%
88%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Max Verstappen

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,080
N/A
N/A
$36,424
Settled
No
kalshi

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,479
N/A
N/A
$15,724
Settled
No
kalshi

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,455
N/A
N/A
$23,377
Settled
No
kalshi

Charles Leclerc

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,538
N/A
N/A
$8,275
Settled
No
kalshi

Liam Lawson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,634
N/A
N/A
$10,660
Settled
No
kalshi

Fernando Alonso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,230
N/A
N/A
$2,230
Settled
No
kalshi

Isack Hadjar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,550
N/A
N/A
$1,338
Settled
No
kalshi

Pierre Gasly

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$944
N/A
N/A
$944
Settled
No
kalshi

Arvid Lindblad

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$530
N/A
N/A
$520
Settled
No
kalshi

Gabriel Bortoleto

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
$510
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Sainz Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$435
N/A
N/A
$435
Settled
No
kalshi

Nico Hulkenberg

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
No
kalshi

Franco Colapinto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$277
N/A
N/A
$277
Settled
No
kalshi

Oliver Bearman

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
$264
Settled
No
kalshi

Lance Stroll

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
$235
Settled
No
kalshi

Esteban Ocon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$150
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexander Albon

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Perez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Valtteri Bottas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This event group tracks whether a red flag will occur during the main race of the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix. The market on Polymarket focuses solely on red flags during the race itself, while the Kalshi market resolves based on specific drivers achieving podium finishes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental logic divergence between race interruption event (Polymarket) and driver performance event (Kalshi)Hero tip: These markets represent entirely different outcomes: one tracks race safety interruptions, the other tracks driver rankings. They should be treated as separate bets with no expected correlation in resolution paths.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes ONLY if a red flag is shown during the main race on Aug 23, 2026. Explicitly states practice/qualifying sessions don't count. Source: Official F1 website and credible sports news.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if ANY of 22 specified drivers finish in the top 3 during the main race on Aug 23, 2026. No mention of red flags or race interruptions in resolution logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a red flag is shown at any point during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled for Aug 23, 2026. The market will resolve to "No" if the race is completed without any red flag periods. If the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Aug 30, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. A red flag shown during practice sessions, qualifying sessions, or any other session besides the main race does not count for this market. Only red flags shown during the Grand Prix race itself will result in a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified driver finishes in one of the top three positions during the main race of the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix, held on August 23, 2026. The resolution depends solely on the driver's final classified position at the end of the race, regardless of any subsequent disqualifications or changes in race results due to post-race investigations or appeals. All markets are independent, and the outcome for each driver is determined exclusively by their own race performance. Kalshi explicitly states it has no official connection with the governing league, and all trademarks and brand names mentioned belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2026 Dutch GP red flag market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of a red flag during the race. It displays current probabilities, volume of $210,029, and 24-hour volume of $144,061, letting users see consensus and divergence in expectations for this specific event.

Key signals include early weather forecasts, track condition reports, and any practice or qualifying incidents that suggest hazardous conditions. Major accidents in preceding sessions, changes in race director decisions, or unexpected weather shifts can all cause rapid movements in this market as traders adjust their expectations ahead of the race weekend.