TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$93,512,876

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,170,643,411

338,472

Markets across

33,488

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,292

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Time left: 06h:13m:19s

Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings?

59%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, The Gap is estimated to release earnings on August 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for The Gap's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.50 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Gap reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.50 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If The Gap releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, The Gap is estimated to release earnings on August 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for The Gap's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.50 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Gap reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.50 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If The Gap releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market shows a top outcome chance of 59.0%, which may diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts often weigh financial metrics, management guidance, and market conditions differently than traders, who react to real-time sentiment and betting dynamics. Comparing this market to analyst ratings can reveal market sentiment not captured in consensus estimates.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through their bets, reflecting the aggregated view of market participants about whether the Gap will beat expectations. The current top outcome chance of 59.0% illustrates this collective sentiment, adjusted continuously as new information emerges and trading volume of $73 flows through the platform.

This market resolves around Aug 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on the official quarterly earnings release and whether it exceeds analyst consensus estimates, as confirmed by reputable financial news sources.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 27, 2026. Strong or weak analyst updates, unexpected macro news affecting retail stocks, and pre-earnings whispers from institutional investors may all influence trader sentiment. Any revision to earnings forecasts or guidance between now and the release could cause rapid price swings. Keep an eye on market mood and trading volume for early hints of shifting expectations.