TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$106,489,002

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,181,535,005

338,833

Markets across

33,624

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,320

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
Companies
limitless
polymarket
opinion
predict

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

Total volume:
$20,834,369
Volume 24h:
$1,489
414%
Liquidity:
$386,394
4%
Open interest:
$926,555N/A

Anthropic

all

2 markets

Predict

91.6%

Opinion

99.9%

consensus

95.8%

+2.4%

spread

91.6-99.9%

(8.3pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

3

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$9k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 91.6¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% | APY: 29% 125 days to resolution
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 75% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 0.26% 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks whether Anthropic will complete an Initial Public Offering by December 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 80.7% across Limitless, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict. Resolution will be determined by credible news sources and official company announcements. Watch the December 31, 2026 deadline for the end of the betting period as the key catalyst for market resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct resolution architectures exist across platforms: Polymarket uses incremental date milestones for SpaceX only; Predict uses a single year-end binary for multiple companies; Limitless adds conditional market-cap settlement; Opinion provides no explicit criteria. Scope (single company vs. multiple companies) and settlement type (binary vs. conditional bracket) diverge significantly.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket SpaceX date markets as a nested hierarchy—earlier dates are stricter conditions. Use Limitless market-cap brackets only if you have conviction on IPO valuation, not just occurrence. Monitor Predict markets for M&A triggers that override IPO outcomes. Ignore Opinion platform for settlement purposes unless official criteria are published. Arbitrage between Polymarket December 31 and Predict year-end SpaceX markets if pricing diverges, but account for market-cap uncertainty in Limitless.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary IPO-by-date milestones for SpaceX only. Resolves YES if IPO occurs by each specified date (March 31, April 30, May 31, June 15, June 30, August 31, September 30, December 31, 2026). Source: credible reporting consensus. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if SpaceX completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.'
  • Predict: Binary IPO-by-year-end for nine companies (SpaceX, Discord, Anthropic, Databricks, Anduril Industries, OpenAI, Ledger, Stripe, and one unnamed). Resolves YES if IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; NO if merger, acquisition, or cessation occurs. Early resolution on IPO completion. Key quote: 'If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to No.'
  • Limitless: Conditional market-cap settlement for SpaceX only. Resolves to one of six market-cap brackets (≥1400B, 1200B-1400B, 1000B-1200B, 800B-1000B, 600B-800B, <600B) based on closing price on first trading day, OR 'No IPO before 2027' if no IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Uses primary exchange official listing page or reliable alternative. Key quote: 'Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.'
  • Opinion: Lists 10 companies (Fannie Mae, OpenAI, Databricks, Anthropic, Cerebras, Canva, SHEIN, ByteDance, SpaceX, Discord) with no explicit resolution criteria, timing, or settlement logic provided. Unresolvable as stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Limitless

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". If the listed company undergoes a merger, this will only qualify for a “No” resolution if the transaction results in the listed company being fully absorbed, dissolved, or otherwise no longer capable of independently conducting an Initial Public Offering. Transactions in which the listed company continues as a parent or successor will not alone qualify for a “No” resolution. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates SpaceX IPO prediction data across Polymarket and Predict, tracking real-time odds for whether SpaceX will complete an initial public offering by the specified deadline. The combined markets have generated total volume of $20,824,693 with recent 24-hour activity at $485,656. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, traders and analysts gain a cross-market consensus view of IPO probability, helping identify whether institutional or retail sentiment diverges on SpaceX's public market timeline.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Predict reflect real-money bets from traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately, often diverging from traditional analyst reports. While Wall Street equity research relies on company guidance and historical precedent, prediction markets incorporate breaking news, regulatory developments, and Elon Musk's public statements in near-real time. Market odds tend to shift faster than analyst consensus updates, making them a leading indicator for IPO timing expectations. Comparing the two reveals whether professional forecasters lag behind market participants.

The SpaceX IPO prediction market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether SpaceX has completed a public offering and begun trading on a major U.S. exchange by that date. The outcome is binary: either SpaceX achieves IPO status before the deadline or it does not. Official SEC filings, stock exchange announcements, and regulatory confirmations serve as the factual basis for determining the final result.

Key catalysts include SpaceX financial performance, Starship test successes, government contracts, and Elon Musk's public statements on IPO timing. Regulatory changes affecting aerospace companies, broader market conditions, and competitor IPOs also influence odds. SEC pre-filing announcements or formal S-1 submissions would trigger sharp probability increases. Conversely, delays in Starship development, funding rounds, or Musk's pivot to other ventures could lower expectations. Geopolitical tensions affecting space policy and investor sentiment shifts in tech stocks represent additional wild cards shaping market prices.