TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
Total volume:
$2,869,355
Volume 24h:
$18,933
36%
Liquidity:
$211,885
4%
Open interest:
$639,468
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Limitless resolves on market-cap brackets with exchange-based settlement; Polymarket and Predict resolve on binary IPO occurrence with credible-reporting consensus. No logical contradiction, but fundamentally different settlement values and resolution sources create platform-specific outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat Limitless as a valuation-discovery market and Polymarket/Predict as binary occurrence markets. If you believe SpaceX will IPO but are uncertain on valuation, Polymarket/Predict offer simpler exposure. Limitless's tie-breaking rule (round up to higher bracket) favors higher valuations at bracket boundaries. Watch for source conflicts: if primary exchange publishes a different closing price than credible-reporting consensus, Limitless and Polymarket/Predict may diverge.Critical Divergence Points:
- Limitless: Resolves to one of seven outcomes: six market-cap brackets (<600B, 600B-800B, 800B-1000B, 1000B-1200B, 1200B-1400B, ≥1400B) or "No IPO before 2027". Settlement based on first-day closing price on primary exchange. Tie-breaking rule: "If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket." Handles trading interruptions by using abbreviated session close or next trading day close. Key Quote: 'Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.'
- Polymarket: Resolves to binary Yes/No on IPO completion by specified dates (March 31, April 30, May 31, June 15, June 30, August 31, September 30, December 31, 2026). No market-cap component. Resolution source is 'consensus of credible reporting'. Explicitly excludes acquisition by public company: 'If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to No.' Key Quote: 'The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.'
- Predict: Resolves to binary Yes/No on IPO completion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. No market-cap component. Resolution source is 'consensus of credible reporting'. Resolves to No if company merges, is acquired, or ceases to exist. Key Quote: 'If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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