TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
In 2026
- Kalshi
In 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Social
Will New York City add a new 3 star restaurant in 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether New York City will gain at least one newly designated three-star Michelin restaurant during 2026. Currently trading at 34.0% on Kalshi, the market reflects uncertainty around whether any establishment will achieve the guide's highest rating this year. Resolution will be determined by the official Michelin Guide announcement, which typically occurs in the fall of each year. Watch for the 2026 Michelin Guide release, expected by year-end, to see whether any NYC restaurant receives the three-star designation.
Kalshi
If New York City has a new 3 star Michelin restaurant added in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants are assigning a 17.0% chance to the event of New York City gaining a new three-Michelin-star restaurant by the end of 2026. This contrasts with typical analyst opinions, which often rely on restaurant industry trends and expert reviews. While analysts may predict growth based on economic factors, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders directly assessing the likelihood of this specific outcome. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate a broader range of information, including insider knowledge and subtle signals not captured in traditional forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a new three-star restaurant will open in NYC by Dec 31, 2026. The price of a contract fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe it *will* happen, the price rises, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, providing a real-time assessment of the probability. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s price discovery.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether a new restaurant in New York City is awarded a three-star rating in the Michelin Guide during 2026. The Michelin Guide’s official announcements will serve as the basis for determining the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor the Michelin Guide releases throughout the year to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the market’s direction.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding new high-end restaurant openings in New York City, particularly those with acclaimed chefs, would be key catalysts. Positive or negative reviews from prominent food critics could also shift trader sentiment. Changes in the economic climate, impacting disposable income and dining trends, are relevant. Furthermore, any news regarding the Michelin Guide's inspection schedule or criteria could influence the perceived probability of a new three-star award. Unexpected events, such as major culinary competitions or chef relocations, could also move this market.
