TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 12:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a prominent content creator will reach a specific subscriber milestone on a major video platform by a set date. The outcome depends on the creator's ability to grow their audience to the threshold before the deadline arrives.
Kalshi
If MrBeast has at least 600 Million subscribers before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a relatively low probability of MrBeast reaching 600 million subscribers before November. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts which predict continued rapid growth for the creator. However, prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially offering a more nuanced view than a single analyst’s opinion. It’s important to remember that these are predictions, and actual subscriber growth could exceed or fall short of both market expectations and expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether MrBeast will surpass 600 million subscribers. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the collective assessment of all traders on Kalshi, and changes based on supply and demand for these contracts. Higher demand for ‘yes’ contracts (MrBeast reaching 600 million) drives up the price, while increased selling pressure lowers it.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total number of subscribers to MrBeast’s primary YouTube channel will be assessed at that time. If the subscriber count is 600 million or greater, the ‘yes’ contracts will pay out. If the count is below 600 million, the ‘no’ contracts will pay out. The resolution will rely on publicly available data to determine the final subscriber count.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major viral videos released by MrBeast, collaborations with other prominent creators, or significant media coverage could all drive subscriber growth and increase the probability of reaching 600 million. Conversely, any controversies or negative publicity surrounding MrBeast could slow growth and lower the market price. Changes in YouTube’s algorithm or platform policies could also impact subscriber acquisition rates, making this market sensitive to both positive and negative developments related to the creator and the platform.
