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Will Conor McGregor and Max Holloway fight before July 13?
kalshi

Will Conor McGregor and Max Holloway fight before July 13?

Volume:
$345,214

Before Jul 13, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Jul 13, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 1:07 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jul 13, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$345,214
N/A
N/A
$167,873
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Conor McGregor and Max Holloway will face each other in a UFC bout before July 13, 2026. The leading outcome currently stands at 61.0% probability. Resolution is determined by whether an official UFC fight between these two fighters takes place within the specified timeframe. Watch for UFC event announcements and fighter availability updates leading up to the July 13, 2026 deadline, as any official bout confirmation would directly trigger market resolution.

Kalshi

If a UFC fight between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway occurs before Jul 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect real-money trader conviction rather than bookmaker risk management. Sportsbooks adjust lines to balance liability, while prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from participants with direct financial incentives. For this UFC 329 matchup, comparing Kalshi probabilities to major sportsbooks reveals how much market sentiment differs when settlement is binary and transparent, versus when a book manages two-sided exposure.

On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability that McGregor and Holloway will fight before Jul 13, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with each cent representing a 1 percent probability increment. The current market price reflects the latest consensus among active traders. Liquidity and recent trading volume on Kalshi determine how easily participants can adjust positions without significant slippage.

The market resolves on Jul 13, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether McGregor and Holloway have been officially scheduled and fought at UFC 329 by that deadline. Resolution depends on verified fight announcements and completion of the bout. Traders should monitor official UFC announcements, fighter statements, and injury reports leading up to the deadline to assess the likelihood of this matchup occurring.

Key catalysts include official UFC fight announcements naming both fighters for UFC 329, injury reports or medical suspensions affecting either athlete, contract negotiations or fighter retirements, and scheduling changes to the UFC event card. Social media statements from McGregor or Holloway about their next opponent, management commentary, and competitive results in intervening fights will also influence trader expectations. Any major MMA news affecting either fighter's availability or willingness to compete could trigger significant price movement on Kalshi.