TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Before Dec 18, 2026
- Kalshi
Before Dec 18, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 18, 2026
Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether Marvel Studios will announce a delay to the Avengers: Doomsday theatrical release, originally scheduled for December 18, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether an official delay announcement is made by the studio or authorized representatives before the deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket apply identical core logic: Yes if official delay announcement past December 18, 2026 is made by competent entity before December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from Marvel Studios, Disney, production company, distributor, parent company, or authorized representatives; credible reporting consensus accepted as supporting evidence.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves Yes if an official announcement of a new release date later than December 18, 2026 is made by a competent entity
- Competent entities include: Marvel Studios, Disney, production company, distributor, parent company, or authorized representatives
- Announcement must occur on or before December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to trigger Yes resolution
- Official communication channels required; credible reporting consensus may be used as supporting evidence
- Market resolves No if no qualifying delay announcement is made by the deadline
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Announcement Timing Edge: If delay is announced after December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No regardless of the new release date, as the announcement falls outside the resolution window.
- Source Authority: Announcements from unofficial sources, fan sites, or unverified leaks do not qualify. Only official channels from competent entities trigger resolution.
- Cancellation vs Delay: If the film is cancelled rather than delayed, this does not qualify as a delay past the original date and should resolve No unless a new future release date is officially announced.
- Credible Reporting Consensus: If multiple credible news outlets report an official delay but the studio has not yet made a formal statement, consensus reporting may be used as evidence, but official confirmation is preferred.
Polymarket
Avengers: Doomsday is expected to be released on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new release date later than the one stated above is officially announced by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be made through official communication channels of a competent entity such as the studio, distributor, production, or a parent company, or a subsidiary, or authorized representative thereof. Resolution will be based on official statements from competent entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Kalshi
If Avengers: Doomsday's release is delayed past December 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional analyst estimates because they aggregate dispersed information and real-money incentives in real time. While entertainment analysts may rely on studio statements, production schedules, and historical precedent, traders here are directly wagering capital on the outcome. This market's pricing reflects forward-looking sentiment from participants who monitor industry news, behind-the-scenes reports, and box-office dynamics. The continuous price discovery mechanism can sometimes lead prediction markets to move ahead of or contradict published forecasts, making them a complementary signal for tracking delay probability alongside conventional analysis.
Polymarket currently favors Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed? at 3.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed? at 9.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences typically stem from variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and risk appetite across venues. Each platform attracts distinct user bases with different information sets and time horizons. Additionally, platform-specific rules, fee structures, and settlement mechanics can influence how traders price identical outcomes. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which interpretation of delay risk is gaining traction in the broader prediction market ecosystem.
This market resolves around Dec 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Marvel officially announces a delay to the Avengers: Doomsday release date before that deadline. Any postponement—whether announced weeks in advance or closer to the original premiere—counts as a delay. Conversely, if the film releases on or before its currently scheduled date, the market resolves to no delay. Traders should monitor official studio communications, press releases, and major entertainment news outlets for definitive announcements.
Key catalysts include production updates from Marvel Studios, casting or director changes, post-production milestones, and broader industry disruptions affecting theatrical releases. Major box-office performance of competing films, labor disputes, or technical challenges could shift trader sentiment on delay risk. Earnings calls or investor presentations from Disney may reveal production status or timeline concerns. Additionally, real-world events affecting cinema infrastructure or audience confidence could prompt studios to reconsider release dates. Close attention to entertainment trade publications, social media from cast and crew, and official Marvel announcements will help you anticipate significant price moves in this market.