TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 18M
- Kalshi
Above 18M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 6, 2026
Closed: Sep 6, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The track WILDCHILD by Alex Warren will be closely watched for its performance in its first week of release. Analysts and fans will be keen to see if it meets or exceeds various streaming milestones, reflecting its immediate impact and audience reception.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the song WILDCHILD by Alex Warren achieves specific streaming thresholds within its first week of release, from August 28 to September 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different streaming milestone (above 14M, 16M, 18M, or 20M streams). The outcome for all markets will be determined by the official stream count reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not influence or endorse the prediction market outcomes. All markets resolve based on the same data source and timeframe, ensuring consistency across differing threshold evaluations.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts often provide initial projections for streaming numbers, this market aggregates the views of many traders, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates factors not fully considered by analysts, or vice versa. It's a fascinating look at how different forecasting methods approach the same event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes for the first week streams of WILDCHILD. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing sentiment among traders. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more responsive the prices become to relevant news and data.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first week streaming numbers for WILDCHILD are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the publicly available data released by the streaming platform, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements to stay informed about the resolution process and timing.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Early buzz around WILDCHILD, including social media trends and critical reviews, will likely influence trading activity. Any announcements regarding marketing campaigns or promotional efforts by the streaming platform could also shift expectations. Furthermore, competitor releases in the same genre during the first week could impact WILDCHILD’s viewership, causing the market to adjust accordingly. Unexpected news related to the artist or the show itself could also be a catalyst.
