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394,774

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Who will Conor McGregor fight next?
kalshi

Who will Conor McGregor fight next?

Volume:
$135,461

Max Holloway

 - Kalshi

Max Holloway - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 10:09 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Max Holloway

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$81,740
N/A
N/A
$42,083
1y 3mo
Yes
kalshi

Michael Chandler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,172
N/A
N/A
$3,288
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Justin Gaethje

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,910
N/A
N/A
$3,929
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Jorge Masvidal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,136
N/A
N/A
$3,089
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Khabib Nurmagomedov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,154
N/A
N/A
$6,052
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Nate Diaz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,458
N/A
N/A
$1,577
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Carlos Prates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,777
N/A
N/A
$1,991
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Mike Perry

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,245
N/A
N/A
$1,881
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Jeremy Stephens

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$923
N/A
N/A
$600
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Tony Ferguson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$809
N/A
N/A
$579
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Eddie Alvarez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
$388
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Tyron Woodley

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$212
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Floyd Mayweather Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
$238
1y 3mo
No
kalshi

Georges St-Pierre

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
$137
1y 3mo
No
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Conor McGregor's next fight will be against Jeremy Stephens, with the leading outcome at 84.0%. The alternative outcome—that his next fight will be against someone other than Stephens—stands at 11.0%. Resolution depends on McGregor's first bout occurring between August 7, 2025 and January 1, 2028, as confirmed by official fight records. Watch for UFC fight announcements starting August 7, 2025, as the identity of McGregor's opponent during this window will determine the market outcome.

Kalshi

If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Michael Chandler, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Nate Diaz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Jorge Masvidal, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Justin Gaethje, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Max Holloway, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Tony Ferguson, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Georges St-Pierre, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Khabib Nurmagomedov, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Tyron Woodley, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Floyd Mayweather Jr., then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Mike Perry, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Jeremy Stephens, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Eddie Alvarez, then the market resolves to Yes. If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Mar 3, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Carlos Prates, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time crowd sentiment rather than oddsmaker algorithms. Sportsbooks adjust for liability and margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs directly. For McGregor's next opponent, prediction market prices may move faster in response to social media rumors or fighter statements, whereas sportsbooks typically wait for official UFC announcements. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in scenarios bookmakers have not yet reflected or vice versa.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution is determined by official UFC announcements and fight confirmations. Once the UFC publicly confirms Conor McGregor's next scheduled opponent, the market will settle based on which outcome matches that announcement. Early resolution is possible if McGregor's next fight is officially booked and announced before the end date. Traders should monitor UFC press releases, McGregor's official statements, and combat sports news outlets for definitive fight confirmations.

Key catalysts include official UFC fight announcements naming McGregor's opponent, updates on McGregor's injury recovery status, statements from rival fighters expressing interest in facing him, and UFC scheduling decisions. McGregor's social media activity and public comments about potential matchups can also shift trader sentiment. Rival fighter retirements, injuries, or contract disputes may eliminate certain opponents from consideration. Major MMA events where other top contenders compete could influence McGregor's next logical matchup. Any news affecting McGregor's availability or the UFC's promotional priorities will likely trigger significant price movement.