TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Who will be voted off Survivor: Season 50 this week? (March 11)
Volume:
$83,292
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks which contestant will be voted off Survivor: Season 50 during the episode scheduled to air March 11, 2024 at 8:00 PM ET. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer binary YES/NO markets on individual contestants, with Polymarket also including an 'Other' catch-all option. Resolution depends on the official broadcast outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical elimination criteria tied to the official broadcast, with only minor structural differences in how they handle non-events (Polymarket's 'Other' vs. Kalshi's 'No').
Primary resolution logic:
Official CBS broadcast of Survivor: Season 50 Episode 3 (air date: March 11, 2024, 8:00 PM ET)Core resolution logic:
- Exactly one contestant must be voted off via tribal council vote during the episode
- Only elimination by voting counts; medical evacuations, forfeitures, and voluntary withdrawals are excluded
- The eliminated contestant's name determines which market resolves to YES (Polymarket) or YES (Kalshi)
- If the episode does not air by 11:59 PM ET on March 11, 2024, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and all Kalshi individual markets resolve to 'No'
- If zero or multiple contestants are voted off in the episode, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and all Kalshi individual markets resolve to 'No'
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Episode delay or non-airing: If the episode does not air by 11:59 PM ET on March 11, 2024, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and all Kalshi contestant-specific markets resolve to 'No'.
- Multiple eliminations in one episode: If more than one contestant is voted off in the same episode, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and all Kalshi markets resolve to 'No'.
- Medical or voluntary exit: Evacuations, medical disqualifications, or voluntary/involuntary forfeitures not resulting from a vote do not trigger YES resolution on any market.
- Unnamed or unknown contestant: Polymarket includes an 'another contestant' option to cover any voted-off player not explicitly named; Kalshi has no equivalent catch-all and would resolve all named markets to 'No'.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the official broadcast of Survivor: Season 50 Episode 3 on March 11, 2024 at 8:00 PM ET, with final settlement by 11:59 PM ET on March 11, 2024.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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