TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Caedrel
- Polymarket
Caedrel - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Closed: Jul 31, 5:34 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the name of the listed Twitch streamer ranked #2 by Hours Watched on the TwitchTracker "Most watched channels" leaderboard, which ranks channels by total hours watched over the last 30 days, at 12PM ET on July 31, 2026. If two or more streamers display the same Hours Watched figure, the market will resolve in favor of the streamer listed higher (appearing above the other) on the leaderboard. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or if the relevant data is not available by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the TwitchTracker most-watched channels (hours watched) leaderboard (https://twitchtracker.com/channels/hours-watched).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the name of the listed Twitch streamer ranked #2 by Hours Watched on the TwitchTracker "Most watched channels" leaderboard, which ranks channels by total hours watched over the last 30 days, at 12PM ET on July 31, 2026. If two or more streamers display the same Hours Watched figure, the market will resolve in favor of the streamer listed higher (appearing above the other) on the leaderboard. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or if the relevant data is not available by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the TwitchTracker most-watched channels (hours watched) leaderboard (https://twitchtracker.com/channels/hours-watched).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and financial incentives. While analysts may rely on historical viewership trends, content calendars, and audience surveys, this market aggregates the views of participants who have money at stake. Traders continuously adjust prices based on breaking news, streamer announcements, and platform algorithm changes. This dynamic pricing mechanism can sometimes lead prediction markets to move ahead of or contradict published analyst opinions, offering an alternative signal for forecasting outcomes.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts share purchases into probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—typically represented as a yes/no contract on a specific streamer—trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the implied probability. As traders buy shares of their preferred outcome, the price rises; selling pressure lowers it. The market's price discovery mechanism ensures that the odds you see reflect the real-time consensus of all active participants, updated with every trade.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, once the event period concludes and final viewership data becomes available. The outcome is determined by identifying which streamer achieved the second-highest total concurrent viewers on Twitch during July, verified against credible public sources. Resolution typically occurs within days of the month's end, once viewership statistics are finalized and confirmed. Traders should monitor official Twitch data releases and platform announcements to anticipate the resolution timeline.
Major catalysts include surprise streaming schedules, collaboration announcements, and platform algorithm shifts that affect visibility. Streamer hiatuses, bans, or controversies can dramatically alter viewership rankings. Esports tournaments, game releases, and seasonal events often drive traffic to specific channels. Real-time viewership reports throughout July will provide early signals of who is tracking toward the second-place position. Competitor activity also matters—if the top streamer takes a break, competition for second place intensifies. Traders should track Twitch trending data, social media momentum, and industry news to stay ahead of shifts in this market.
