TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether a mysterious album titled 'Daughter from Hell' will feature any of a curated list of contemporary indie and pop artists before July 18, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any one of these artists appears as a featured performer on the album within the specified timeframe. This appears to be speculative about an unreleased or unannounced musical project and its potential collaborators.
If Taylor Swift is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivia Rodrigo is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Noah Kahan is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lorde is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sabrina Carpenter is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Phoebe Bridgers is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Clairo is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Styles is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Conan Gray is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If FINNEAS is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Billie Eilish is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hozier is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bon Iver is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Laufey is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Japanese House is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Holly Humberstone is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rachel Chinouriri is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Maisie Peters is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Troye Sivan is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Selena Gomez is featured on the album 'Daughter from Hell' before Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each possible featured performer or cast member is priced as a separate binary contract, with odds reflecting the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring. The price of each contract moves continuously as new casting news, production updates, or social media signals emerge. Traders buy contracts they believe are underpriced and sell those they see as overpriced, driving the market toward equilibrium and creating a real-time consensus forecast on who will ultimately be featured in the film.
The market is scheduled to resolve on Jul 18, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements regarding the cast and featured performers in 'Daughter from Hell,' including credits, promotional materials, and studio confirmations. The specific criteria for what constitutes a valid featured role will be clarified as the film's production and release cycle progresses, ensuring traders have a clear understanding of which casting announcements will trigger settlement.
Major catalysts include official studio casting announcements, entertainment news reports, social media reveals by producers or directors, and film festival premieres or screenings. Industry trade publications like Variety and The Hollywood Reporter often break casting news first, creating sharp price movements. Additionally, production updates, trailer releases, and behind-the-scenes content could confirm or hint at featured performers. Any public statement from the filmmakers or cast members about their involvement would likely trigger significant market activity as traders reassess probabilities.