TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 11:08 AM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether The Weeknd will appear as a featured artist on Ariana Grande's upcoming album petal. The leading outcome currently stands at 80.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by official album credits or announcements from Ariana Grande or her label confirming The Weeknd's participation on the project. Watch for the album's official release or any pre-release announcements before December 31, 2026, which will settle this market.
If The Weeknd is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Doja Cat is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If SZA is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicki Minaj is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Bieber is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Victoria Monét is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Billie Eilish is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivia Rodrigo is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tyla is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Summer Walker is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brent Faiyaz is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Giveon is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pharrell Williams is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kaytranada is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Troye Sivan is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lana Del Rey is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Travis Scott is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Taylor Swift is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rihanna is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bad Bunny is featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi derive from real-money trading and represent decentralized crowd forecasts rather than traditional analyst predictions. While music industry analysts may speculate on album features based on artist relationships and past collaborations, prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into quantified probabilities. The market-based approach often captures breaking news and social sentiment faster than formal analyst reports. For this event, comparing market odds to entertainment journalism and music industry commentary can reveal whether traders are pricing in information that mainstream analysts have overlooked or underweighted.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution is determined by official confirmation of featured artists on Ariana Grande's 'petal' album through credible sources such as album credits, official announcements, or verified music industry databases. Each outcome contract settles based on whether the specified artist appears as a credited feature on any track within the final album release. Traders should monitor official Ariana Grande social channels, music label announcements, and album pre-release information for definitive confirmation of all featured collaborators.
Key catalysts include official album announcements or tracklist reveals naming featured artists, social media hints or collaborations between Ariana Grande and potential features, music industry leaks or credible reports from entertainment outlets, and any public statements from the artists themselves. Studio session photos, behind-the-scenes content, or surprise single releases featuring collaborators could shift trader expectations significantly. Additionally, changes in artist relationships, touring announcements, or award show performances together might signal upcoming features. As the album release date approaches, each new piece of information will likely trigger repricing across the market outcomes.