TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 24, 2026
Closed: Jul 16, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Kamu Kirk will be evicted from Big Brother season 28 during Week 2. The aggregated consensus probability stands at 89.7% across Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by Big Brother season 28 broadcasts and credible reporting. Watch for the official eviction results by the end of the Week 2 episode window on July 23, 2026, as this will determine the market outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi's resolution deadline (Before Jul 17, 2026) occurs before Polymarket's Week 2 window begins (July 17-23, 2026), creating mutually exclusive temporal scopes. Kalshi's criteria appear to reference Week 1, not Week 2, making these non-equivalent markets despite identical contestant lists.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets covering different weeks. Kalshi likely resolves on Week 1 evictions (by July 17 deadline), while Polymarket explicitly covers Week 2 (July 17-23). Confirm Kalshi's intent with the platform—if the deadline is intentional, arbitrage opportunities may exist if markets misprice the week-to-week correlation. If it is a data error, flag for correction immediately.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if contestant is officially eliminated Before Jul 17, 2026. This deadline precedes Week 2 and appears to capture Week 1 eliminations only. No explicit exclusions for disqualification or voluntary departure are stated.
- Polymarket: Resolves Yes only for evictions between July 17, 2026 and July 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Week 2 window). Explicitly excludes disqualification, voluntary departure, and immediately-reversed eliminations. Includes reinstated contestants if original elimination was final.
Polymarket
Big Brother season 28 premiered on July 9, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is evicted from Big Brother season 28 between July 17, 2026 and July 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An eviction will qualify if the individual is removed from further competition within the structure of the competition, regardless of whether it happens during a standard eviction cycle, a surprise vote or double eviction, or based on challenge performance. Disqualification or voluntary departure will not count. If an individual is eliminated but later returns, re-enters, or is reinstated, the original elimination will qualify. However, a declaration of elimination that is immediately and explicitly reversed or nullified during the same episode or broadcast segment (e.g., through a judge’s save, secret participation, public vote, or immunity twist) will not qualify. This market will stay open until the end of the relevant episode to confirm the finality of eviction. This market will remain open until a qualifying eviction is confirmed. However, if no qualifying eviction airs on the official broadcast of Big Brother season 28 by July 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be footage from the relevant week of Big Brother Season 28 or a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
A contestant is considered officially eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 if they are voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdraw, are disqualified, or are removed by producers before July 17, 2026. Official elimination must be declared through the program's broadcast, official website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. Multiple simultaneous eliminations count toward resolution. A contestant's initial elimination counts even if they later return to the game through a buyback or similar mechanism. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. If Big Brother Season 28 is canceled without any eliminations being officially declared, the market resolves to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional analyst commentary because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of informed participants rather than relying on a single expert opinion. Traders update their positions continuously as new information emerges—competition winners, diary room confessionals, and social dynamics all shift the odds in real time. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, are typically published less frequently and may lag behind market repricing. This market's odds tend to reflect ground truth faster than conventional media analysis, though both approaches offer valuable perspectives on eviction likelihood.
Live feed footage showing shifting alliances or betrayals can rapidly reprrice odds for specific houseguests. Competition outcomes—particularly the Head of Household and Power of Veto competitions—directly influence nomination and eviction strategy, triggering sharp market moves. Diary room confessionals revealing voting intentions often trigger repricing as traders update their models. Social media sentiment and fan voting patterns, if visible, can also sway trader confidence. Late-breaking news about player injuries, rule violations, or surprise twists could cause sudden volatility. The closer the market gets to the eviction episode, the more stable odds typically become as uncertainty resolves.