TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$85,014,378
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,695,592
394,774
Markets across
30,069
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,615
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 10:45 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Margaret Qualley will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding ceremony. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by whether Margaret Qualley is confirmed as an attendee at the wedding, according to the resolution source. Watch for official wedding announcements or guest list confirmations as the event approaches the estimated resolution window by the end of 2028.
Attendance is confirmed if a person is reported present at the event by any credible source, including social media posts by the attendee themselves. Virtual attendance counts as attendance unless the event is explicitly designated as in-person only. Brief appearances or partial attendance qualify as attendance for resolution purposes.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2028. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation of attendees at the actual wedding ceremony and reception. Outcomes depend on verified guest lists, credible media coverage, and documented attendance records from the event itself. Each binary contract settles based on whether the named individual was physically present at the wedding. Traders should monitor announcements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, and their representatives as the date approaches for any updates affecting the likelihood of specific attendees.
Key catalysts include public statements from Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce about guest lists, celebrity relationship developments or breakups, social media hints from potential attendees, and entertainment news coverage of wedding planning. Friendship status changes, professional collaborations, or public feuds involving celebrities on the attendee list could shift probabilities significantly. Additionally, any official wedding announcements regarding date, location, or guest count would trigger market repricing. Traders should track celebrity news outlets, social media activity, and statements from Swift and Kelce's representatives for signals affecting attendee likelihood through Dec 31, 2028.