TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 02d:07h:56m
Highest ranked US restaurant: Chubby Fish
$
Description
This event tracks which U.S.-based restaurant achieves the highest position on an internationally recognized list for 2026. The outcome depends on the official rankings released by a global authority in the culinary world during that year.
Kalshi
Markets resolve based on The World's 50 Best Restaurants' official numbered global ranking for the 2026 edition. The highest-ranked U.S. restaurant is defined as the restaurant located in the United States with the smallest numerical rank. If the ranking is not published during 2026, all markets resolve to No. In case of a tie for the specified rank among candidates, “Yes” positions pay $1/N (rounded down), where N is the number of tied candidates, and “No” positions pay 1 minus the “Yes” payout, using the publisher's official tie-breaking method.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds offered in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While many food critics and publications offer annual rankings and predictions, these are often subjective and released with varying frequencies. Unlike those opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a continuously updated assessment of each restaurant’s likelihood of success. It will be interesting to see if the collective prediction of traders aligns with or diverges from expert opinions as we approach the resolution date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a restaurant’s likelihood of topping the rankings. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding each restaurant’s potential. Higher volume generally suggests greater interest and liquidity in that particular outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the restaurant ranked highest by a widely-recognized and authoritative U.S. restaurant ranking list will determine the winning outcome. The ranking list must be publicly available and consistently applied to a broad range of restaurants across the United States. The final ranking will be used to determine which contract pays out, and the payout will reflect the initial price of the winning contract.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major chef changes at leading restaurants, critical acclaim (or negative reviews) from influential food critics, and significant shifts in dining trends could all move the odds. Unexpected closures or openings of high-profile establishments would also be key catalysts. Furthermore, economic conditions and consumer spending habits can influence restaurant performance, and any major changes in these areas could affect trader sentiment. Any news relating to the restaurants currently leading in the market, such as awards or expansions, could also cause substantial price movement.
