TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Apple TV
- Polymarket
Apple TV - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 15, 2:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the streaming service which wins the greatest number of Emmys at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. An Emmy will be attributed to a streaming service if the show for which the award is won is officially attributed to that streaming service, whether the recipient is a person, the show itself, or any other entity. For example, if Steve Carell wins "Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series" for his performance in "Rooster", that win would be attributed to HBO Max. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of Emmys, this market will resolve in favor of the streaming service whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If all 78th Primetime Emmy Awards have not been awarded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the Emmys awarded up until that point. If no Emmys are awarded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Television Academy, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.televisionacademy.com/), and the live broadcasts of the Creative Arts Emmys and the Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the streaming service which wins the greatest number of Emmys at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. An Emmy will be attributed to a streaming service if the show for which the award is won is officially attributed to that streaming service, whether the recipient is a person, the show itself, or any other entity. For example, if Steve Carell wins "Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series" for his performance in "Rooster", that win would be attributed to HBO Max. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of Emmys, this market will resolve in favor of the streaming service whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If all 78th Primetime Emmy Awards have not been awarded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the Emmys awarded up until that point. If no Emmys are awarded by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Television Academy, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.televisionacademy.com/), and the live broadcasts of the Creative Arts Emmys and the Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than individual expert opinion. Analysts may rely on historical Emmy voting patterns and critical reception, while this market incorporates live trader conviction and breaking developments. When major entertainment news breaks—such as production announcements or award-season momentum shifts—market prices typically adjust faster than published analyst predictions. Comparing the two reveals where consensus differs and highlights potential value opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time odds for each streaming service outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing their chosen platform, and the price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market. As more capital flows toward a particular outcome, its price rises and others fall, creating a dynamic equilibrium. This mechanism ensures prices remain responsive to new information and trader sentiment throughout the betting window.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, following the conclusion of the Emmy Awards ceremony. The outcome is determined by which streaming service receives the highest total number of Emmy wins across all categories. Once the official Emmy results are announced and verified against credible public sources, the market settles automatically in favor of the winning platform. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout based on the final odds at resolution.
Major catalysts include Emmy nominations announcements, which reveal which shows and networks are in contention, and pre-ceremony industry buzz about frontrunners. Streaming platform marketing campaigns and award-show predictions from entertainment media outlets can shift trader sentiment significantly. Production delays, critical acclaim for nominated content, and shifts in voting bloc preferences among Academy members all influence market pricing. Additionally, unexpected industry developments—such as merger news or major talent announcements—may reshape expectations about which platform will dominate the awards.
