TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.5b

24H VOL:

$264,423,826

24H TRANSACTIONS:

951,878,243

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,171,275,957

831,219

Markets across

15,133

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

973

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA

Science and Technology

$Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?$

Science and Technology

polymarket

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

Jun 4, 2026, 3:20 PM EST - Jul 30, 2026, 8:00 PM EST

Total volume:

$281,215

Volume 24h:

$9,999

30%

Liquidity:

$82,762

24%

Open interest:

$35,510N/A

Anthropic 91%

polymarket

Google 7%

polymarket

OpenAI 3%

polymarket

Time left: 14d:08h:34m

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% High Projected APY: 892% 14 days to resolution

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Markets

Details

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

title

trade

chance

price

spread

liquidity

volume

volume24pers

volume7pers

openInterest

endDate

unifiedStatus

polymarket

Anthropic

91%

3%

Yes 91¢

No 9¢

1¢

$4,426

$77,496

0.84%

135%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Google

7%

4%

Yes 8.6¢

No 91.4¢

2.5¢

$7,395

$60,942

4%

99%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

OpenAI

3%

Yes 3.4¢

No 96.6¢

1.7¢

$6,680

$57,069

0.53%

145%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

xAI

1%

Yes 1¢

No 99¢

0.8¢

$5,753

$16,574

3%

70%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

DeepSeek

0%

Yes 0.2¢

No 99.8¢

0.1¢

$5,669

$8,114

40%

189%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Moonshot

0%

Yes 0.2¢

No 99.8¢

—

$5,428

$13,990

41%

413%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Mistral

0%

Yes 0.2¢

No 99.8¢

—

$5,634

$4,778

0%

147%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Alibaba

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$8,693

$11,294

0%

304%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Meta

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$3,240

$5,648

0%

80%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Z.ai

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$5,073

$4,868

0%

70%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Amazon

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$4,521

$4,743

0%

73%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Meituan

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$5,039

$4,213

0%

91%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Microsoft

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$5,519

$3,890

0%

106%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

ByteDance

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$4,816

$3,832

0%

110%

N/A

2w 8h

active

polymarket

Baidu

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 99.9¢

—

$4,876

$3,764

0%

113%

N/A

2w 8h

active

Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and published rankings. While analyst reports may emphasize specific benchmark scores or research papers, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking expectations and incorporate breaking news about model releases or performance claims. Comparing market-implied probabilities to analyst sentiment can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors analysts have overlooked, or conversely, whether markets are overweighting near-term hype relative to expert assessment of long-term mathematical reasoning quality.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, each company outcome is priced as a separate contract, with the sum of all outcome probabilities equaling 100 percent. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief in that company's likelihood of being deemed to have the best Math AI model by Jul 31, 2026. Traders buy and sell these contracts based on new model announcements, benchmark results, and evolving assessments of mathematical reasoning capabilities. The continuous order book ensures prices update in real time as new information emerges.

Major catalysts include new model releases or updates from leading AI labs, publication of peer-reviewed papers demonstrating superior mathematical reasoning, performance on high-profile benchmarks like MATH, Olympiad datasets, or theorem-proving tasks, and announcements of partnerships or breakthroughs in symbolic reasoning. Shifts in industry consensus, acquisition of specialized AI teams, and real-world applications solving complex mathematical problems could all influence market pricing. Media coverage of AI safety and capability comparisons may also sway trader sentiment as the July 2026 resolution date approaches.

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