TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Science and Technology
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?
polymarket

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

Volume:
$387,693

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 5:36 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$106,615
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$88,204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,020
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,863
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,955
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,764
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,890
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,832
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,778
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company F

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company H

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company K

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company E

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company G

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company I

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the best Text Arena Math AI model at the end of July 2026 on Polymarket, with Anthropic currently leading at 91.5% and Google following at 6.4%. The outcome will be determined by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. Watch for the leaderboard update on July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, which will finalize the rankings and resolve this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and published rankings. While analyst reports may emphasize specific benchmark scores or research papers, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking expectations and incorporate breaking news about model releases or performance claims. Comparing market-implied probabilities to analyst sentiment can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors analysts have overlooked, or conversely, whether markets are overweighting near-term hype relative to expert assessment of long-term mathematical reasoning quality.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, each company outcome is priced as a separate contract, with the sum of all outcome probabilities equaling 100 percent. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief in that company's likelihood of being deemed to have the best Math AI model by Jul 31, 2026. Traders buy and sell these contracts based on new model announcements, benchmark results, and evolving assessments of mathematical reasoning capabilities. The continuous order book ensures prices update in real time as new information emerges.

Major catalysts include new model releases or updates from leading AI labs, publication of peer-reviewed papers demonstrating superior mathematical reasoning, performance on high-profile benchmarks like MATH, Olympiad datasets, or theorem-proving tasks, and announcements of partnerships or breakthroughs in symbolic reasoning. Shifts in industry consensus, acquisition of specialized AI teams, and real-world applications solving complex mathematical problems could all influence market pricing. Media coverage of AI safety and capability comparisons may also sway trader sentiment as the July 2026 resolution date approaches.