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Which company has the best Text Arena Coding AI model end of July?
kalshi
polymarket

Which company has the best Text Arena Coding AI model end of July?

Volume:
$265,057

Claude

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$116,300
N/A
N/A
$25,539
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,241
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57,154
N/A
N/A
$22,145
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,676
N/A
N/A
$7,411
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,504
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

MiMo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,562
N/A
N/A
$7,135
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,356
N/A
N/A
$4,505
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,550
N/A
N/A
$7,325
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,317
N/A
N/A
$2,355
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,667
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,408
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,761
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,028
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$837
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$749
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

This event group determines which company has developed the best coding AI model as of end of July 2026. Kalshi uses the Datacurve DeepSWE benchmark measured on June 30, 2026, while Polymarket uses the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding category measured on July 31, 2026. The markets resolve to YES for whichever company's model ranks highest on their respective benchmark.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct evaluation benchmarks (Datacurve DeepSWE vs Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard) measured on different dates (June 30 vs July 31, 2026) create independent resolution paths. The same company may not win on both platforms.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate prediction events. Kalshi's June 30 measurement occurs one month before Polymarket's July 31 measurement. Model rankings can shift significantly over a month. Arbitrage opportunities may exist if you believe rankings will diverge between the two dates. Monitor both leaderboards separately and do not cross-apply results.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses Datacurve DeepSWE benchmark measured on June 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Market structure is binary for each of 7 specific models (Claude, DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Kimi, Grok, MiMo, Gemini). Resolves YES if that model has highest DeepSWE score. Key quote: 'If [Model] is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jun 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard Coding category measured on July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Market structure is mutually exclusive across 27 companies. Tiebreaker hierarchy: rank, then Arena score (including granular unrounded values), then alphabetical order. Key quote: 'Results from the Rank column under the Text Arena | Coding Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by identifying which model holds the highest rank on the Datacurve DeepSWE benchmark on June 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. When models are tied for the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if no such methodology exists, all tied models share the highest rank. In cases of ties, each tied model's contract resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. Exactly one model will achieve the top ranking and resolve to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Kalshi for which company will have the best Coding AI model by end of July 2026. It tracks consensus probability shifts, trading volume, and outcome positioning as traders update their views on leading AI vendors. The cross-platform view reveals how different market participants weight candidates like Meta, OpenAI, Google, and others. Total group volume of $265,057 reflects cumulative trader conviction across both venues, while 24-hour activity of $19,796 shows current momentum and engagement.

Prediction market odds synthesize real-money trader expectations and often diverge from published analyst reports. Markets price in speed of iteration, benchmark performance, and competitive releases that traditional forecasts may lag on. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi continuously update odds based on leaked benchmarks, product announcements, and developer adoption signals. Analyst consensus typically reflects historical performance, while markets front-run emerging technical advantages and market share shifts. Comparing the two reveals whether Wall Street and institutional research are ahead of or behind crowd-sourced trader sentiment on Coding AI leadership.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi arise from distinct trader bases, liquidity depth, and outcome definitions. Polymarket may attract retail traders with different risk appetites, while Kalshi draws institutional and sophisticated participants. Liquidity concentration on one platform can create temporary arbitrage gaps. Subtle wording variations in how each platform frames the "best" Coding AI model—whether by benchmark score, adoption, or market share—can shift trader interpretation. Geographic and regulatory differences also influence who participates on each venue, leading to divergent probability estimates for the same underlying event.

Major catalysts include new model releases, benchmark results from GitHub Copilot, Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and other vendors. Developer adoption metrics, enterprise contract wins, and open-source community feedback shift trader conviction. Security vulnerabilities or licensing disputes could damage a frontrunner's standing. Conference announcements, research papers, and real-world coding performance in production systems influence perception of "best." Regulatory actions or API pricing changes may alter competitive positioning. Quarterly earnings calls revealing AI investment levels and product roadmaps also move odds. Traders monitor technical blogs, GitHub stars, and Stack Overflow discussions for early signals of market leadership shifts.