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Which company has the best AI model end of March?
polymarket
kalshi

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Volume:
$16,551,762

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Closed: Mar 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,753,531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$127,532
N/A
N/A
$88,175
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,141,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,653,187
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,481,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,424,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,263,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,261,862
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,225,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,201,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,196,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$620,715
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,619
N/A
N/A
$75,928
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,471
N/A
N/A
$37,624
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,465
N/A
N/A
$39,081
Settled
No
kalshi

LLaMA

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
$662
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
$175
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company L

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

These markets collectively determine which AI company owns the best-performing large language model as of March 31, 2026, using the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as the authoritative ranking source. Polymarket offers granular binary outcomes for 26 specific companies/entities plus an 'any other' catch-all, while Kalshi provides binary YES/NO resolution for six major AI labs. Both platforms resolve based on the highest Arena Score on the leaderboard at the specified checkpoint time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi differ in scope and company coverage. Polymarket includes 26 questions covering named companies (Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, etc.) plus placeholder companies (A-M) and an 'any other company' catch-all, while Kalshi covers only 6 specific companies (xAI, Meta, Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Alibaba) with no catch-all option. This means Polymarket can resolve YES for companies not listed on Kalshi, creating divergent outcomes.Hero tip: If you trade on Polymarket and bet on a company not covered by Kalshi (e.g., Moonshot, DeepSeek, Mistral, or the 'any other company' option), your market may resolve YES while all Kalshi markets resolve NO. Conversely, if one of the six Kalshi companies wins, both platforms align. Be aware that Polymarket's broader scope creates asymmetric risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on the highest Arena Score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) as of March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with 26 individual company questions plus a catch-all 'any other company' option. The market explicitly states 'Results from the Arena Score section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.' This allows resolution for any company whose model ranks highest, including those not pre-listed.
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on which company has the top-ranked LLM on March 31, 2026, but only covers six pre-specified companies (xAI, Meta, Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Alibaba). The market structure uses conditional YES/NO outcomes: 'If [Company] has the top-ranked LLM on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' No catch-all or 'any other company' option is provided, meaning if a company outside this list ranks highest, Kalshi has no explicit resolution path.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.