TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Volume:
$25,063,870
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which company has developed the best AI language model as of February 28, 2026, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the company owning the model with the highest Arena Score on that date, with tie-breaking rules applied if needed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines a comprehensive set of 26 named companies plus an "any other" catch-all, while Kalshi restricts resolution to exactly 7 named companies with no alternative resolution path. This creates a scope mismatch where winners outside Kalshi's list cannot resolve to Yes on that platform.Hero Tip:
Polymarket offers broader coverage and a safety valve via the "any other company" market. If you believe the winner will be outside Kalshi's 7-company list (Moonshot, DeepSeek, Baidu, Meituan, Mistral, or an entirely new entrant), Polymarket is the only platform where you can profit. Conversely, if you are confident the winner is one of the 7 Kalshi companies, both platforms should align.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Comprehensive scope with 26 named companies (including Moonshot, DeepSeek, Baidu, Meituan, Mistral, Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI) plus 13 placeholder companies (A-M) and a catch-all "any other company" option. Resolution: highest Arena Score on Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) on Feb 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Tie-breaking by alphabetical order of company name. Key Quote: 'Results from the Arena Score section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.'
- Kalshi: Restricted scope to 7 named companies only: xAI, Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, Google, ByteDance. Resolution: Yes if any of these 7 has the top-ranked LLM on Feb 28, 2026. No catch-all or alternative resolution mechanism for other companies. Key Quote: 'If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Feb 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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