TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:03 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific cities will be featured with at least one starred restaurant in the 2026 Michelin Guide. The outcome depends on the guide's official listings, focusing on restaurants geographically associated with each city, regardless of political boundaries.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the 2026 Michelin Guide includes any restaurant associated with the listed cities that has earned at least one Michelin star. A restaurant qualifies for a city market if the Michelin Guide explicitly lists it within or designates it as associated with that city, irrespective of formal municipal boundaries. Both existing and newly starred restaurants are considered. Each city market operates independently, allowing multiple cities to resolve positively. The guide’s final published version is authoritative; post-expiration revisions are disregarded. Kalshi clarifies no official affiliation with Michelin, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for which cities will gain Michelin stars in 2026 reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often rely on culinary trends and restaurant reviews, this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals, potentially capturing a broader range of information and anticipating surprises. Currently, the market’s implied probabilities may differ from traditional rankings, reflecting factors not easily quantified by analysts, such as emerging culinary scenes or unexpected chef movements. It’s a fascinating way to gauge overall confidence in various cities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each city, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that city receiving a starred restaurant in the 2026 Michelin Guide. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out $1 if the outcome is correct, and the implied probability is derived from this price. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence in each city’s prospects.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 2026 Michelin Guide is published and the list of starred restaurants is publicly available. The outcome will be verified against credible public reporting of the Michelin Guide’s selections. The market will determine which cities are listed as having at least one restaurant with one or more Michelin stars in the 2026 guide. Any updates or changes to the Michelin Guide after the initial publication will not affect the resolution of this market.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major restaurant openings by renowned chefs in currently unstarred cities would likely increase their odds. Conversely, negative reviews or closures of highly-rated restaurants could decrease a city’s chances. Announcements regarding the Michelin Guide’s expansion plans or changes to their selection criteria could also cause shifts in the market. Additionally, broader economic trends affecting the restaurant industry and significant culinary events happening in specific cities could influence trader sentiment and move the market.
