TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether selected artists will achieve a number-one song on the US charts during May. On Polymarket, Ariana Grande holds a 94.5% probability of securing a #1 hit, while Taylor Swift stands at 5.5%. Resolution will be determined by the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, with any song reaching the #1 position on any day in May qualifying for a "Yes" outcome. Watch for chart movements throughout May 2026 as the resolution date of May 31st approaches to see which artists claim the top spot.
The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the May chart period concludes. Resolution is determined by official US chart data, specifically whether each artist achieved a number-one position on the relevant Billboard or industry-standard chart during May. Each outcome is binary: either the artist had a number-one hit in the US during that month, or they did not. Traders should monitor chart announcements and official music industry sources as the resolution date approaches to track which artists have qualified.
Key catalysts include confirmed single releases and release dates, streaming performance and playlist placement on major platforms, radio airplay and promotional campaigns, chart debuts and weekly positioning, collaborations or features that boost visibility, and social media or viral moments. Chart performance in April and early May provides direct signals about momentum heading into the final chart period. Major award show performances, surprise announcements, or competitive releases from other artists can also shift probabilities. Traders should monitor music industry news, chart tracking services, and artist social accounts for developments that indicate likelihood of achieving number-one status.