TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in June?
kalshi
polymarket

Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in June?

Volume:
$3,648,149

Malcolm Todd

 - Kalshi

Malcolm Todd - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:11 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Malcolm Todd

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$313,780
N/A
N/A
$111,241
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Olivia Rodrigo

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$198,355
N/A
N/A
$44,483
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Olivia Rodrigo

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$14,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ella Langley

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$69,057
N/A
N/A
$63,367
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Taylor Swift

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41,334
N/A
N/A
$25,891
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Taylor Swift

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,061
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ariana Grande

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,031
N/A
N/A
$14,217
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ariana Grande

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Drake

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,366,981
N/A
N/A
$287,302
Settled
No
polymarket

Drake

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Olivia Dean

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$409,771
N/A
N/A
$150,980
Settled
No
polymarket

Olivia Dean

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$198,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Jackson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$260,607
N/A
N/A
$85,832
Settled
No
kalshi

Bruno Mars

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148,446
N/A
N/A
$63,888
Settled
No
polymarket

Bruno Mars

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Future

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$135,215
N/A
N/A
$49,405
Settled
No
kalshi

BTS

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$58,696
N/A
N/A
$21,319
Settled
No
kalshi

Sabrina Carpenter

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,836
N/A
N/A
$15,890
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Bieber

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,791
N/A
N/A
$22,831
Settled
No
kalshi

Gracie Abrams

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,459
N/A
N/A
$9,143
Settled
No
polymarket

Gracie Abrams

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

J. Cole

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,874
N/A
N/A
$7,334
Settled
No
kalshi

Charli xcx

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,059
N/A
N/A
$9,149
Settled
No
kalshi

Morgan Wallen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,595
N/A
N/A
$10,406
Settled
No
kalshi

Kanye West / Ye

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,297
N/A
N/A
$10,097
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 65

Intro

This market tracks whether specific artists will achieve #1 positions on Spotify's Top 50 - USA chart during June 2026. The aggregated consensus from Kalshi and Polymarket shows Drake at 20.0% probability of reaching #1, followed by Olivia Dean at 16.3%. Resolution is determined by Spotify's Top 50 - USA chart, with any song by a listed artist as primary artist reaching the top spot on any single day in June counting as a #1 hit. Watch for chart movements as June 2026 approaches and the resolution period closes on July 1, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution logic tied to Spotify Top 50 - USA chart #1 positions during June 2026, with matching exclusion rules for featured/collaboration tracks.Primary resolution logic: Spotify Top 50 - USA chart (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp)

Core resolution logic:

  • An artist resolves to Yes if any song credited to that artist as the primary artist reaches #1 on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any single day in June 2026
  • Features and collaborations where the artist appears but is not the primary profile do not qualify for that artist's resolution
  • Only daily chart positions are evaluated; weekly or monthly aggregates are not used
  • Kalshi covers 51 specific artists; Polymarket covers 15 specific artists plus 1 open artist (Don Toliver, Bad Bunny, Beyonce not in Kalshi list)
  • Resolution is binary: Yes if #1 achieved at least once during June; No if #1 is never achieved

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Feature tracks: A song where the artist is a featured performer but not the primary artist profile does not count toward that artist's resolution
  • Multiple songs by same artist: If an artist has multiple songs reach #1 during June, the market still resolves Yes (not a count-based market)
  • Chart data availability: If Spotify chart data for June 2026 becomes unavailable or corrupted, resolution defaults to the last confirmed daily chart snapshot before the data loss
  • Artist name variations: Artist names must match exactly as listed on Spotify's primary artist profile; alternate spellings or stage names not recognized by Spotify do not qualify
  • Tie or simultaneous #1: If multiple songs are listed as #1 on the same day (rare), any artist among them resolves to Yes
Timing: Resolution occurs on July 1, 2026, based on complete Spotify Top 50 - USA chart data for all days in June 2026 (June 1-30)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp. Spotify is a registered mark of Spotify AB. Polymarket is not affiliated with Spotify AB and neither Spotify AB, nor its affiliates, sponsor or endorse Polymarket.

Kalshi

If Djo is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivia Dean is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Taylor Swift is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If HUNTR/X is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ella Langley is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If KATSEYE is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Warren is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If sombr is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fleetwood Mac is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If She & Him is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If RAYE is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If EsDeeKid is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Morgan Wallen is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chappell Roan is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Drake is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If A$AP Rocky is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Megan Moroney is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Baby Keem is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joji is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Mars is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If J. Cole is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Styles is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luke Combs is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Charli xcx is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lana Del Rey is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If PinkPantheress is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Zara Larsson is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If BTS is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Twenty One Pilots is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Weeknd is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ariana Grande is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Olivia Rodrigo is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Noah Kahan is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yeat is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Playboi Carti is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dominic Fike is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bella Kay is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Bieber is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicki Minaj is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Jackson is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Madonna is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sabrina Carpenter is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Brown is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Central Cee is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If 21 Savage is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Travis Scott is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gracie Abrams is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Malcolm Todd is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Future is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kanye West / Ye is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kendrick Lamar is #1 on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders, creating a crowdsourced forecast that often differs from traditional music industry analyst predictions. While analysts may rely on chart momentum, radio play, and label promotion data, prediction markets incorporate all available information plus trader conviction. The current market consensus reflects active trading and continuous price discovery. Comparing market odds to published forecasts from music publications and chart analysts can reveal where the crowd disagrees with experts, potentially signaling undervalued or overvalued outcomes.

Key catalysts include new single releases, surprise album drops, and streaming momentum shifts from major artists. Radio airplay announcements, music award show performances, and viral social media moments can rapidly shift chart positioning. Collaborations with established hitmakers often boost chart prospects. Chart performance in May 2026 will provide strong signals about June momentum. Industry news regarding label promotion budgets, festival lineups, and touring announcements can also influence market odds. Real-time chart data and streaming metrics from platforms like Spotify will drive trader activity as June approaches.