TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Olivia Rodrigo's song "stupid song" on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of September 5, 2026. It evaluates where the song ranks within the top ten positions, reflecting its popularity and chart success during that specific period.
The event determines whether Olivia Rodrigo's song "stupid song" ranks within the top ten positions on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of September 5, 2026. Each primary rule specifies that if the song is ranked at a particular position from #1 to #10, the market resolves to Yes. The secondary rules clarify that Billboard has not endorsed these markets, and any references to Billboard or the Hot 100 are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by Billboard. The outcome hinges solely on the song's chart position for the specified week.
Currently, prediction market odds imply a specific probability distribution for the chart position of 'stupid song,' which can diverge from analyst forecasts. Experts may weigh factors like recent single performance, airplay trends, and streaming numbers when publishing their expectations. This market often captures crowd-sourced insights that differ from traditional media or industry analyst predictions, offering a unique perspective on likely outcomes.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for that week is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final ranking of 'stupid song' will set the result, closing all open positions and determining payouts for contract holders based on where the song actually lands.
Key signals that could shift this market include major radio pickups, viral social media moments, streaming spikes after specific events, or competitive chart releases around the same timeframe. Any surprise performance — such as award-show appearances or collaborations — may also sway trader sentiment. Media coverage and pre-release teasers often create short-term price swings as participants reassess probabilities.