TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
1
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Noah Kahan's "Stick Season" will reach the number-one position on the Billboard 200 chart for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the probability of the song hitting the top spot stands at 9.0%, with a 9.0% probability it ranks second on the same chart. Resolution is determined by the official Billboard 200 rankings released for that week. Watch the chart performance in the weeks leading up to June 10, 2026, when the Billboard 200 for the week of June 6 will be finalized.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and differ from traditional music industry analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on airplay data, streaming metrics, and historical chart performance, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives that often surface forward-looking signals. Comparing Kalshi odds to music chart analysts' predictions can reveal whether the market is pricing in factors like album momentum, touring activity, or cultural trends that formal forecasts may underweight or overlook.
On Kalshi, the market is priced as a binary contract on whether 'Stick Season' will reach number one on the Billboard 200 during the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects trader conviction about the song's chart trajectory relative to competing releases. Prices move based on new information about chart performance, streaming trends, and radio support. Traders buy or sell shares to express their view, and the final settlement depends on the official Billboard 200 ranking published for that week.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, shortly after the Billboard 200 chart dated June 6, 2026 is officially published. The outcome is determined by the actual chart position of 'Stick Season' as reported by Billboard. Traders' positions settle based on whether the song meets the specified outcome criteria. Resolution relies on Billboard's official methodology and data, ensuring an objective, verifiable result tied to real-world chart performance.
Key catalysts include streaming surges on Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube; radio airplay increases; major media coverage or viral moments; chart performance of competing releases; and any touring or promotional announcements by Noah Kahan. Chart momentum from prior weeks, playlist placements, and year-end award season buzz can also influence market prices. Unexpected chart debuts or drops by rival artists may shift relative positioning. Traders monitor these signals to adjust their positions ahead of the June 6, 2026 chart date.
