TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Noah Kahan's album 'Stick Season' on the Billboard 200 chart for the week of August 8, 2026. It examines how the album's ranking on a major music chart might reflect its popularity and success during that period. The outcome depends purely on the album's position on the chart at the specified date.
The event determines whether Noah Kahan's 'Stick Season' achieves a top-10 position on the Billboard 200 chart for the week of August 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific ranking from #1 to #10. If the album occupies any of these positions on the specified chart date, the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' The secondary rules clarify that Billboard has not endorsed these markets, and any references to Billboard or its marks are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by Billboard. The resolution hinges solely on the official Billboard 200 ranking published for that week.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s current odds reflect a blend of fan expectations, recent social media buzz, and chart performance trends. While analysts may focus on streaming projections and prior album data, traders in this market incorporate real-time sentiment shifts and betting patterns, often leading to different implied probabilities for the album's ranking.
This market resolves around Aug 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard 200 chart for the week dated August 8, 2026 is published and verified against credible public sources. The final ranking will be determined by standard chart rules, including sales, streaming, and track-equivalent album calculations reported that week.
Key signals that could shift this market include major streaming platform announcements, chart-boosting collaborations, live performance viewership spikes, and any last-minute marketing pushes by Noah Kahan or his label. Unexpected events such as chart rule changes or competing album releases in the same week could also influence trader sentiment and pricing dynamics.