TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether STATESIDE by PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson will reach number three on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the probability of the song hitting exactly that position stands at 5.5%, while the probability it appears anywhere on the Hot 100 during that same week is also 5.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 chart dated June 6, 2026. Watch for the song's performance trajectory leading up to the chart release on June 10, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations and differ from traditional music industry analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on streaming data, radio airplay projections, and historical chart patterns, prediction markets incorporate live trader conviction weighted by financial stakes. Comparing Kalshi odds to music chart analysts and industry publications can reveal whether traders are more or less bullish on 'STATESIDE' reaching specific chart positions than expert consensus suggests, offering a complementary perspective on the song's likely performance.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 chart dated June 6, 2026, which ranks songs based on a formula combining sales, radio airplay, and streaming data from the tracking week. The specific chart position where 'STATESIDE' appears on that published chart will determine which outcome contract settles to 100 and which settle to zero. Billboard's official rankings are the sole source of truth for this event.
Several factors could shift trader expectations for 'STATESIDE' chart performance. Major streaming milestones, playlist placements on Spotify or Apple Music, radio station adds and airplay momentum, and social media virality can all drive demand and move odds. Competing releases from major artists in the same tracking week could affect the song's relative ranking. Chart performance of previous PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson releases may inform trader models. Music industry news, award nominations, or promotional announcements could also influence market prices as traders reassess the likelihood of specific chart positions.