TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
10
- Kalshi
10 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks where Bruno Mars' song Risk It All will rank on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the song reaches number two—stands at 11.0%, while the secondary outcome of the song appearing anywhere on the chart carries a 5.5% probability. Resolution will be determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 rankings released for the week of June 6, 2026. Watch the song's streaming and radio performance metrics leading up to the chart publication date of June 10, 2026, as these factors typically drive Billboard Hot 100 positioning.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and can differ meaningfully from music industry analyst forecasts or chart predictors. While analysts may rely on streaming data, radio airplay, and historical chart patterns, prediction markets incorporate broader information including social sentiment, competitive releases, and trader positioning. Comparing Kalshi odds to major music forecasters and chart analysis services helps contextualize whether the market is pricing in optimistic or conservative expectations for the song's chart rank during that week.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026 following the publication of the official Billboard Hot 100 chart dated June 6, 2026. The outcome is determined by whether 'Risk It All' by Bruno Mars appears on that specific chart and, if applicable, its final ranking position. Billboard's official methodology—which incorporates sales, streaming, and radio airplay data—determines the authoritative result. Traders should monitor chart release schedules and any official Billboard announcements leading up to resolution.
Several factors could shift market odds before resolution. Major streaming milestones, radio playlist placements, and music video releases can boost chart momentum. Competing releases from other major artists during the same chart week may affect ranking. Chart performance in preceding weeks provides momentum signals. Industry news about Bruno Mars' touring, collaborations, or promotional campaigns can influence trader expectations. Additionally, unexpected viral moments on social media or award show performances could drive sudden interest changes. Traders monitor all these catalysts to adjust positions ahead of the June 6, 2026 chart publication.
