TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Olivia Dean's song Man I Need will appear on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the song will be ranked on the chart during that week—stands at 11.0%, while the probability it reaches the #4 position specifically is 5.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official Billboard Hot 100 rankings released on June 10, 2026, which will confirm the song's exact chart position for that tracking week.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader conviction based on streaming data, radio airplay, and chart momentum. Traditional music analysts and industry forecasters typically rely on historical chart patterns and current promotional activity. The market-derived probability offers a dynamic, crowd-sourced alternative to static analyst predictions, updating continuously as new performance metrics become available. Comparing the two approaches can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors that traditional analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, following the official release of the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated June 6, 2026. The outcome is determined by whether 'Man I Need' by Olivia Dean appears anywhere on that specific chart. Resolution depends on Billboard's official methodology, which accounts for streaming, radio airplay, and sales data collected during the tracking period. Once the chart is published, the contract settles based on the verified chart data.
Key catalysts include major playlist placements on Spotify, Apple Music, or other streaming platforms, which directly influence chart eligibility. Radio airplay announcements or surprise promotional campaigns can rapidly shift momentum. Chart performance of competing releases during the same tracking week affects relative positioning. Viral social media moments or celebrity endorsements may boost streaming velocity. Additionally, any chart-eligible sales or streaming milestones achieved in the weeks leading up to June 6, 2026 will influence whether the song meets the threshold for Hot 100 inclusion.