TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
4
- Kalshi
4 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks where Morgan Wallen's song "I'm The Problem" will rank on the Billboard 200 chart for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the track will reach #2—stands at 48.0%, while a #3 ranking carries 48.0% probability. The market resolves according to the official Billboard 200 chart dated June 6, 2026. Watch for the chart release on June 10, 2026, when Billboard publishes its weekly rankings and settles this market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations about the album's chart position, which may differ from traditional music industry analyst forecasts. While analysts typically rely on historical chart patterns and pre-release momentum, prediction markets incorporate real-time betting behavior and evolving information. Comparing the current market probability to published forecasts from music publications and chart analysts can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.
On Kalshi, the outcome is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability that 'I'm The Problem' will rank at number 2 on the Billboard 200 for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market price reflects trader consensus on this specific chart position. Prices move based on trading activity, new album sales data, streaming trends, and competitive releases. Traders buy contracts at lower prices if they believe the outcome is undervalued or sell at higher prices if they expect the probability to decline.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the Billboard 200 chart for the week dated June 6, 2026 is officially published. Resolution is determined by whether 'I'm The Problem' by Morgan Wallen achieves a number 2 ranking on that specific chart. The Billboard 200 ranking is based on album sales, streaming activity, and other tracked metrics during the designated chart week. Official Billboard data serves as the authoritative source for determining the outcome.
Key catalysts include Morgan Wallen's promotional activities, streaming performance trends, competing album releases scheduled for the same chart week, and any chart-eligible re-releases or deluxe editions. Radio airplay momentum, social media buzz, and touring announcements can drive consumer interest. Chart-tracking data released by Billboard or third-party services in the weeks leading up to June 6, 2026 will provide concrete sales and streaming figures. Major industry news or unexpected chart movements by competing artists could also shift trader expectations about the album's final ranking.
