TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the chart performance of a specific song on a major music chart for a particular week. It reflects public interest and industry metrics that determine a song's ranking among peers during that period. The outcome depends on the song's position relative to competitors at the close of the tracking week.
Kalshi
Multiple markets cover different possible chart positions for the song "I Knew It, I Knew You" by Taylor Swift on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week dated September 19, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the song occupies a specific rank from #1 through #10 on the chart for that week. All markets clarify that references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation between Billboard and the market operator. The resolution hinges solely on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart publication for the specified week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as detailed public predictions are limited. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. While analysts might focus on historical data and radio play, this market also considers social media trends, streaming numbers, and fan engagement, potentially leading to a different assessment of the song's likely chart position.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different chart positions for 'I Knew It, I Knew You'. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top-traded outcome is unavailable, but volume provides insight into which rankings traders are most actively focusing on.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of September 19, 2026, is published. The resolution will be verified against credible public sources reporting the chart rankings. The contract corresponding to the actual chart position of 'I Knew It, I Knew You' will pay out, while all other contracts will settle at zero. Traders should monitor the official Billboard charts for the final determination of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major shifts in Taylor Swift’s promotional activities, such as surprise album releases or high-profile performances, could boost the song’s popularity. Unexpected increases in streaming numbers or radio play would also be key indicators. Conversely, negative publicity or the emergence of a competing hit song could dampen its chart performance. Social media trends and fan engagement will also be closely watched. Any significant news related to Taylor Swift or the music industry in general could move this market before Sep 23, 2026.
