TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Ella Langley's album DANDELION will achieve the top position on the Billboard 200 chart for the week ending June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that DANDELION reaches number one—stands at 97.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official Billboard 200 rankings published for that chart week, with the market settling based on DANDELION's final charting position as of the Billboard 200 chart dated June 6, 2026.
On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary contract: will 'DANDELION' by Ella Langley reach number-one on the Billboard 200 during the week of June 6, 2026? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract trades between 0 and 100, where the price directly reflects the implied probability of a number-one debut. Traders buy at lower prices if they believe the outcome is underpriced, or sell if they think it is overpriced. Settlement occurs after the official Billboard chart is published, with payouts determined by whether the song achieves the top position.
This market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, following the publication of the official Billboard 200 chart dated June 6, 2026. The outcome is determined by the final chart position assigned to 'DANDELION' by Ella Langley on that specific chart week. Resolution depends on verified sales, streaming, and radio data compiled by Billboard according to their standard methodology. Once the chart is published and confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on whether the song achieved the number-one ranking.
Several factors could shift market odds before resolution. Major streaming milestones, radio airplay announcements, or viral social media moments could increase bullish sentiment. Conversely, competing releases from established artists, chart fatigue, or weak pre-order data might reduce the probability of a number-one debut. Award nominations, high-profile performances, or celebrity endorsements could boost momentum. Additionally, broader music industry trends, playlist placements on major platforms, and real-time sales tracking reports will influence trader expectations as the chart week approaches and actual performance data becomes available.