TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
1
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks where Michael Jackson's "Billie Jean" will rank on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 6, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the song reaches #2—is priced at 5.5%, while the #3 ranking outcome is also at 5.5%, according to Billboard's official Hot 100 rankings as the resolution source. Watch for the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated June 6, 2026, which will determine the song's final position and settle this market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi represent real-money consensus from active traders and reflect dynamic, up-to-the-minute sentiment. In contrast, analyst forecasts from music industry experts and chart predictors are typically static or updated less frequently. The market price incorporates breaking news, streaming data, and radio play trends instantly, while traditional analyst predictions may lag behind current conditions. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether traders are pricing in factors that mainstream music analysts have overlooked or underweighted regarding 'Billie Jean's chart trajectory.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, shortly after the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated June 6, 2026 is officially published. The outcome is determined by whether 'Billie Jean' achieves the #1 ranking on that specific chart release. Resolution relies on the official Billboard Hot 100 data as the authoritative source. Once the chart is released and verified, the contract settles based on the actual chart position of the song, concluding all trading activity and determining payouts for holders of YES and NO shares.
Several factors could shift odds for 'Billie Jean' reaching #1 by June 6, 2026. Major streaming surges, viral social media moments, or renewed cultural attention to Michael Jackson could boost the track's momentum. Radio play increases or playlist placements on major platforms like Spotify and Apple Music would strengthen its chart position. Competing releases from major artists in that week could reduce its chances. Anniversary celebrations, documentaries, or licensing deals involving the song might drive unexpected interest. Chart performance in preceding weeks provides direct signals about trajectory. Any significant news affecting Michael Jackson's legacy or the song's cultural relevance could influence trader sentiment and market pricing.
