TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 16, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific song on a major music chart at a future date. It focuses on where the song places within a ranked list of popular tracks during a particular week, reflecting public listening trends and industry metrics.
The event evaluates the chart position of 'Been By Now' by Morgan Wallen on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of August 22, 2026, across ten possible rankings from #1 to #10. For the event to resolve positively, the song must appear within any of these top ten positions on the specified chart date. Each position-specific rule defines a distinct outcome where the market resolves to 'Yes' if the song achieves that exact rank. The secondary rules clarify that Billboard has not endorsed these markets, and any references to Billboard or the Hot 100 are used descriptively, not as an endorsement or affiliation. The collective rules ensure that the event captures a range of successful chart performances, allowing participants to speculate on the song’s potential reach within the top tier of the chart.
Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a dynamic, crowd-sourced outlook that can shift rapidly with new information. While analysts may publish their projections based on chart performance, streaming numbers, and industry trends, this market incorporates real-time trader sentiment and betting patterns. That can sometimes lead to notable differences — for example, if early streaming data surprises observers, traders may adjust positions quickly, creating a market view that diverges from traditional expert predictions.
This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending Aug 22, 2026 is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final ranking will be determined by Billboard’s standard methodology — a blend of radio airplay, streaming, and sales data — and once that data is finalized and reported, the market will close and settle accordingly.
Several signals could shift this market before it resolves: major radio station lineups adding the song, viral moments on social media that boost streaming numbers, chart-competing releases around the same timeframe, and any last-minute performance boosts such as festival plays or award-show mentions. Any unexpected surge in daily streams or a drop in radio rotation could also cause rapid price swings, reflecting updated trader confidence in where the song might land on the chart.