TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 6 2026?
Volume:
$177,112
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets track whether the S&P 500 (SPY) will reach specific price levels during the week of April 6, 2026. Polymarket offers granular HIGH and LOW price targets using 1-minute candle data from Pyth, while Kalshi provides a single end-of-day index settlement value on April 10, 2026 across 30 discrete price bands.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement events: Polymarket tracks intraday price extremes (HIGH/LOW) across a full trading week using 1-minute candles on SPY; Kalshi tracks a single end-of-day index close on April 10, 2026. The assets (SPY ETF vs. S&P 500 index) and price scales also differ.Hero Tip:
These markets are not directly comparable or hedgeable against each other. Polymarket rewards catching any price spike or dip during the week; Kalshi rewards predicting the exact closing level on one day. Choose based on your view: do you expect volatility and price touches (Polymarket) or a specific closing price (Kalshi)? Also note SPY trades at roughly 1/10th the S&P 500 index value.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle for SPY reaches the target HIGH or LOW price during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) at any point during the week of April 6, 2026. Uses Pyth as primary source; falls back to official exchange daily high/low if Pyth data is unavailable. Prices are exact and split-adjusted. Covers 9 HIGH targets ($690, $685, $680, $675, $670, $665, $660) and 8 LOW targets ($655, $650, $645, $640, $635, $630, $625).
- Kalshi: Resolves YES based on the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 10, 2026 only. Covers 30 contiguous price bands spanning from below 6225 to above 6924.9999 in 25-point increments. Each band resolves independently; exactly one band will resolve YES. No intraday or weekly range measurement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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