TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.4b

24H VOL:

$268,259,776

24H TRANSACTIONS:

951,878,243

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,159,026,548

830,716

Markets across

15,101

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

967

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 6 2026?
Financials
polymarket
k

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 6 2026?

Volume:
$177,112
PredictionHero
6,800 to 6,824.9999 100%
kalshi
↑ $680 100%
polymarket
↑ $660 100%
polymarket
Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Jul 2…020406080100

Closed: Apr 10, 7:00 PM EST

k

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
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7d
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Ends in
Result

Description

These markets track whether the S&P 500 (SPY) will reach specific price levels during the week of April 6, 2026. Polymarket offers granular HIGH and LOW price targets using 1-minute candle data from Pyth, while Kalshi provides a single end-of-day index settlement value on April 10, 2026 across 30 discrete price bands.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement events: Polymarket tracks intraday price extremes (HIGH/LOW) across a full trading week using 1-minute candles on SPY; Kalshi tracks a single end-of-day index close on April 10, 2026. The assets (SPY ETF vs. S&P 500 index) and price scales also differ.Hero tip: These markets are not directly comparable or hedgeable against each other. Polymarket rewards catching any price spike or dip during the week; Kalshi rewards predicting the exact closing level on one day. Choose based on your view: do you expect volatility and price touches (Polymarket) or a specific closing price (Kalshi)? Also note SPY trades at roughly 1/10th the S&P 500 index value.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle for SPY reaches the target HIGH or LOW price during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) at any point during the week of April 6, 2026. Uses Pyth as primary source; falls back to official exchange daily high/low if Pyth data is unavailable. Prices are exact and split-adjusted. Covers 9 HIGH targets ($690, $685, $680, $675, $670, $665, $660) and 8 LOW targets ($655, $650, $645, $640, $635, $630, $625).
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES based on the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 10, 2026 only. Covers 30 contiguous price bands spanning from below 6225 to above 6924.9999 in 25-point increments. Each band resolves independently; exactly one band will resolve YES. No intraday or weekly range measurement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.20.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.