TOTAL VOLUME:

$131.1b

24H VOL:

$95,234,810

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,313,328,591

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,363,939,422

375,171

Markets across

30,639

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,813

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

40%

VS.

Kalshi:

60%

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What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
polymarket
kalshi

What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?

Total volume:
$4,313,398
Volume 24h:
$13,631
97%
Liquidity:
$884
0%
Open interest:
$3,282,046
0.17%

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

 - Polymarket

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

82%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% | APY: 109% Low liquidity 98 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

Trade
82%
Yes 82¢No 18¢
—
$105
$10
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

>$36,000

Trade
30%
Yes 30¢No 96.9¢
—
$245
$42
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

33,000.01 or above

Trade
19%
Yes 23¢No 81¢
4¢
N/A
$405,576
0.94%
3%
$164,852
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

31,500 to 31,999.99

Trade
11%
3%
Yes 12¢No 93¢
5¢
N/A
$128,300
0.45%
9%
$95,377
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

30,500 to 30,999.99

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$120,078
0.97%
5%
$91,978
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

32,000 to 32,499.99

Trade
8%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$145,535
0.45%
12%
$96,434
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

32,500 to 33,000

Trade
7%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
N/A
$168,414
0.58%
10%
$93,048
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

31,000 to 31,499.99

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$125,980
0.62%
8%
$92,313
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

30,000 to 30,499.99

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$127,530
0.42%
15%
$94,475
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

29,500 to 29,999.99

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$120,676
2%
3%
$83,668
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

29,000 to 29,499.99

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$110,855
0%
0.51%
$81,185
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

18,999.99 or below

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$1,278,205
0%
0.68%
$1,120,340
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

28,500 to 28,999.99

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$94,087
0%
0.76%
$75,567
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

27,500 to 27,999.99

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$80,413
0%
2%
$71,327
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

26,500 to 26,999.99

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$75,979
0%
2%
$60,883
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

27,000 to 27,499.99

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$70,545
0%
0%
$59,843
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

25,500 to 25,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$121,318
0%
0%
$62,154
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

26,000 to 26,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$101,069
3%
3%
$70,525
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

25,000 to 25,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$97,836
0%
0.83%
$74,916
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

24,000 to 24,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$93,415
0%
6%
$68,095
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

24,500 to 24,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$87,157
0%
4%
$78,238
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

28,000 to 28,499.99

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$70,173
0%
0.21%
$47,852
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

23,500 to 23,999.99

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$65,192
0%
5%
$62,029
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

19,000 to 19,499.99

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$82,228
0%
7%
$71,453
3mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

22,500 to 22,999.99

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$77,214
0%
6%
$64,850
3mo 1w 1d
active
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

These markets collectively assess where the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index will close on the final trading day of December 2026 at 4pm EST. Polymarket offers 10 specific price-range brackets spanning <$23,500 to >$36,000, while Kalshi provides 30 granular Yes/No conditions covering nearly identical ranges in $500 increments. Both platforms resolve based on the official closing price published for that trading session.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: all 30 conditions resolve to YES, making it impossible for the market to ever resolve NO. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive price brackets that collectively cover the full range, creating two fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market — it is logically unresolvable as written. Every possible NDX closing price on Dec 31, 2026 triggers a YES resolution. On Polymarket, your outcome depends entirely on which bracket you select; pick the bracket matching your NDX price forecast and understand that exactly one will resolve YES.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All 30 conditions resolve to YES. Conditions 1-2 cover above 33000 and below 19000; conditions 3-30 cover every 500-point bracket from 19000 to 33000. This leaves no outcome that resolves NO. The market is logically broken and unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Ten mutually exclusive price brackets, each resolving independently: <23500, 23500-25000, 25000-26500, 26500-28500, 28500-30500, 30500-33000, 33000-36000, and >36000. Exactly one bracket will contain the final NDX closing price on Dec 31, 2026, and only that market resolves YES. Resolution source is Yahoo Finance historical close price.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which price range the NASDAQ-100 index value falls into on December 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST. The market divides all possible closing prices into consecutive 500-point bands, with the lowest band capturing values below 19,000 and the highest band capturing values above 33,000. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the index closes, with the market expiring at the sooner of the first data release or one week after December 31, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional Wall Street analyst price targets for the Nasdaq-100 by year-end 2026. While sell-side research typically anchors on fundamental earnings models and macroeconomic scenarios, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives and crowd wisdom. Analysts may project steady growth or cyclical corrections, whereas market odds reflect live probability weighting across bull, base, and bear cases. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more optimism or caution than consensus research, offering a complementary lens on 2026 index expectations.

On Kalshi, the Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026 is priced through binary outcome contracts tied to specific price levels. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders buy or sell shares representing whether the index will close above or below key thresholds—for example, whether NDX will remain below 19,000 or break higher by December 31, 2026. Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the implied probability visible in real time. The top outcome currently shows 95.0% implied probability, reflecting trader conviction on the most actively traded price boundary.

Major catalysts for the Nasdaq-100 through 2026 include Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation trends, and earnings revisions for mega-cap tech firms. Geopolitical tensions, trade policy changes, and recession risk could trigger sharp repricing. Artificial intelligence adoption rates and regulatory developments affecting Big Tech will influence sentiment. Quarterly earnings surprises from index heavyweights like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia directly impact the index. Macro data—jobs reports, GDP growth, bond yields—shape the broader risk-on or risk-off environment. Unexpected M&A activity or leadership changes at major constituents can also drive meaningful moves toward year-end.