TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 25, 2:33 PM EST
Polymarket
MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such video is posted by MrBeast by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such video is posted by MrBeast by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Prediction market odds differ fundamentally from traditional analyst forecasts because they represent real-money stakes rather than expert opinion. Traders in this market have direct financial incentive to accurately predict MrBeast's next video content, which often produces more dynamic and responsive pricing than static analyst predictions. While analysts may rely on historical patterns and thematic analysis, market participants continuously adjust odds based on emerging information, recent video trends, and community discussion, creating a self-correcting mechanism that can outpace conventional forecasting methods.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds for each potential outcome by buying and selling shares, with the price of each share reflecting the implied probability of that statement appearing in MrBeast's next video. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing into a particular outcome, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This continuous auction mechanism ensures that prices adjust in real time as new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, creating a transparent market-driven valuation of each possible phrase or catchphrase.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once MrBeast publishes his next YouTube video and the content becomes publicly verifiable. The outcome is determined by identifying which statement or phrase from the market's predefined options actually appears in the video, confirmed through credible public sources including the video itself and community verification. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed for the video to be widely viewed and the specific dialogue to be documented and cross-referenced by the platform's resolution team.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Announcements about the video's theme or guest appearances may hint at likely dialogue, while MrBeast's recent social media activity or podcast appearances could telegraph catchphrases he's likely to repeat. Trending topics in his community and patterns from his previous videos also influence trader positioning. Additionally, any teaser clips, thumbnail reveals, or community speculation on platforms like Reddit and Twitter can trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust their positions based on emerging context clues about the video's content.