TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Feeling Good
- Kalshi
Feeling Good - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
Closed: Jun 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event concerns whether Michael Bublé will perform at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Opening Ceremony in Canada, specifically whether he will perform any of his popular songs during the ceremony before June 13, 2026. The market resolves positively if he performs any one of these iconic tracks as part of the opening ceremony performance.
Kalshi
A valid performance requires Michael Bublé to be physically present on stage and either sing, rap, or vocalize recognizable lyrics or melody from the specified song live, or play an instrument performing the recognizable melody, riff, or musical structure live. Pre-recorded audio or video playback without simultaneous live contribution does not qualify. Medleys, mashups, and partial performances count as valid performances. Guest appearances count if the specified performer actively participates in performing the song. If the opening ceremony is postponed to a date before the June 13, 2026 deadline, the market remains open for the rescheduled event. If the event is cancelled entirely, rescheduled after the deadline, or the performer withdraws, all markets resolve to No. Soundchecks and rehearsals do not count as valid performances. All markets close by June 13, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed knowledge about Michael Bublé's likely opening ceremony song choice. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on expert opinion or historical precedent, prediction markets incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. Analysts may cite Bublé's greatest hits, recent album releases, or ceremonial themes, while market prices incorporate live updates about rehearsals, official announcements, or cultural moments. The market-derived probabilities often diverge from pundit predictions because traders respond immediately to breaking news, whereas analyst forecasts may lag or remain static.
The market resolves on Jun 20, 2026, immediately following Canada's World Cup opening ceremony. Resolution is determined by which song Michael Bublé actually performs during the official ceremony broadcast. The outcome will be verified against official FIFA and broadcast records to confirm the setlist. Traders holding positions in the correct outcome receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Early resolution may occur if Bublé's performance is officially announced or confirmed before the ceremony date.
Official announcements from FIFA, the Canadian organizing committee, or Michael Bublé's team about the opening ceremony setlist would immediately shift market odds toward the confirmed song. Rehearsal footage, social media hints, or interviews where Bublé discusses his performance plans could also move prices. Recent album releases or chart performance may influence trader expectations about which hits he prioritizes. Media speculation and fan campaigns could sway sentiment. As the ceremony date approaches, any leaked details or credible reports about the performance would trigger sharp repricing across all outcomes.
