TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 4:52 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, without any of the three dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message listed in the Java Edition section of https://minecraft.wiki/w/Death_messages (as that page appeared at market creation) for the specified damage type is displayed for any of Jynxzi, Ron, or Los following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Every death message listed for that damage type will count. The category of the in-game death is what matters, not the mob or player involved. Death messages listed for any other damage type on that page, or under the Bedrock Edition section, will not count, even where the cause of in-game death appears related. A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count. Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by any of the three players. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death. Only in-game deaths of the three accounts played by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game. Deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the three players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time." The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Jynxzi's, StableRonaldo's, and Los Pollos's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Polymarket
Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, without any of the three dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message listed in the Java Edition section of https://minecraft.wiki/w/Death_messages (as that page appeared at market creation) for the specified damage type is displayed for any of Jynxzi, Ron, or Los following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Every death message listed for that damage type will count. The category of the in-game death is what matters, not the mob or player involved. Death messages listed for any other damage type on that page, or under the Bedrock Edition section, will not count, even where the cause of in-game death appears related. A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count. Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by any of the three players. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death. Only in-game deaths of the three accounts played by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game. Deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the three players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time." The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Jynxzi's, StableRonaldo's, and Los Pollos's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide detailed reasoning and justifications for their predictions, this market represents the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see the market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing traditional analyst updates. Ultimately, this market offers a real-time, financially incentivized forecast that contrasts with more static expert assessments.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices fluctuate, providing a dynamic and responsive assessment of the likelihood of each eliminator. This creates a constantly updating forecast based on the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which competitor is officially eliminated from the event, as determined by the official event organizers and broadcast publicly. The market will then settle to 100% probability for the correct outcome and 0% for all others. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the winning prediction based on the actual event results.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the performance of Jynxzi, Ron, or Los in the event – such as wins, losses, or strategic decisions – will likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected alliances or rivalries forming among the competitors could also be a major catalyst. Furthermore, public sentiment and social media discussions surrounding the event can influence trader behavior and, consequently, market prices. Major upsets or surprising gameplay could lead to rapid adjustments in the probabilities as traders react to the evolving dynamics.
