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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,171,226,487

333,737

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33,115

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4,155

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5

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What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Financials
predict
polymarket

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?

Total volume:
$1,510,122
Volume 24h:
$13,037
5%
Liquidity:
$399,443
0.05%
Open interest:
$815,277N/A

↑ $5,000

 - Polymarket

↑ $5,000 - Polymarket

63%

+4%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 23

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$3.4k

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 63¢ buys you 159 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $159 | Net Profit: $59 Multiplier: 1.59x | ROI: 59% | APY: 277% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks whether the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures will reach specific price thresholds by the end of December 2026. All markets resolve based on the same core criteria: a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the settlement price equals or exceeds the listed threshold on any trading day before or on the final trading day of December 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution logic based on CME's official settlement prices for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Primary resolution logic: CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures

Core resolution logic:

  • A market resolves to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures equals or exceeds the listed threshold on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026
  • Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group is considered; intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count
  • Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored
  • Resolution is based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates
Timing: Resolution occurs after the final trading day of December 2026, once all settlement prices for that month have been published by CME GroupOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the gold price milestone market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume across platforms. It tracks how likely various price thresholds appear to traders, offering a consensus view of market sentiment. With a total volume of $1,457,767 and 24-hour volume of $12,662, it reflects the collective wisdom of participants betting on whether gold will reach specific levels by the deadline.

On Polymarket, this market prices the chance of hitting the target level at 99.0%, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts that weigh macroeconomic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks. Analysts may be more conservative or optimistic depending on their models, while prediction markets incorporate real-time trader sentiment and can price in rapid shifts in supply-demand dynamics or sudden risk-on/risk-off moves.

On Predict, this market may show a different probability than Polymarket due to variations in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, differing trading volumes or fee structures can lead to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket favors Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,500 by end of December? at 99.0%, while Predict leans toward Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? at 99.8%, reflecting unique trader perspectives on gold's trajectory.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch whether gold closes above or below the specified threshold on the final trading day, after which the result is locked in based on widely accepted data sources.

Key events that could shift this market include central bank announcements on interest rates, changes in gold ETF holdings, sudden moves in the U.S. dollar index, and geopolitical tensions that drive safe-haven demand. Economic data like inflation reports or shifts in global trade flows may also influence trader sentiment and adjust the implied probability of hitting the target level before Dec 31, 2026.