TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Latest in Social
Closed: Sep 24, 1:51 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting Elon Musk’s social media activity is not a common area of professional analysis. However, the market provides a real-time assessment of collective belief, reflecting what a diverse group of traders thinks is most likely to happen. If polls or sentiment analyses were available regarding potential topics Elon might address, it would be interesting to see how they align with the probabilities expressed in this market. The market’s dynamic pricing incorporates new information as it emerges, potentially offering a more responsive indicator than static forecasts.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on a review of Elon Musk’s posts on X (formerly Twitter) between September 21st and September 27th. The outcome will reflect whether any of the predicted events or topics occurred in his posts during that time frame. The outcome is determined by a review of his publicly available posts, ensuring transparency and objectivity in the resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any direct statements from Elon Musk regarding his planned topics for the week would have a substantial impact. Major news events, particularly those related to Tesla, SpaceX, or artificial intelligence, could also shift the probabilities as traders anticipate his reaction. Unexpected announcements or controversies involving Elon Musk himself are also likely to cause fluctuations. Finally, significant shifts in public sentiment or trending topics on X could influence the market as traders adjust their predictions based on the broader online conversation.
