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Vol.
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Resolved Oct 12, 2026
Latest in Social
Closed: Oct 6, 8:43 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding Elon Musk’s online behavior. While analysts often rely on qualitative assessments and past trends, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of information or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a forward-looking view, incorporating new information as it becomes available, whereas analyst forecasts may be less dynamic.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and collective wisdom of the traders participating in the Elon Musk posting market.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a determination of what Elon Musk posted on his primary social media accounts (currently X) during the specified timeframe of October 5th to October 11th. The specific outcome that resolves the market will be the most prominent theme or event that dominated his posting activity during that week, as determined by a review of his public posts.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 11, 2026. Unexpected announcements from Tesla or SpaceX, major news events involving Elon Musk, or even shifts in public sentiment regarding his online persona could all influence trading activity. A controversial post or a significant change in his posting frequency would also likely cause substantial movement. Furthermore, any indication of his planned activities for the week, such as scheduled interviews or public appearances, could impact the perceived probabilities of different outcomes in this market.
