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406,065
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2,692
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5
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 19, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader behavior and financial incentives rather than relying on expert opinion alone. In this market, traders betting money on specific outcomes create price signals that reflect collective expectations about what Elon will post. Analyst forecasts tend to be more static and published less frequently, whereas prediction markets update continuously as new information surfaces. The market-derived odds can sometimes lead or lag analyst views depending on how quickly traders process breaking news or shift their conviction about upcoming posts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a price between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the implied probability that outcome will occur. As traders buy shares of a particular outcome, its price rises and other outcomes fall, creating a dynamic equilibrium. The more capital flowing into one outcome, the higher its price climbs, and vice versa. This continuous repricing ensures the market reflects the latest consensus about what Elon is most likely to post during the week.
This market resolves around Jul 19, 2026, after the week concludes and all posts have been published. The outcome is confirmed once verified against credible public sources, including Elon's official social media accounts and major news coverage. Traders must wait until the resolution window closes and the event is fully observable before the market settles. Once the outcome is clear, payouts are distributed to those who correctly predicted which posts would occur. The resolution process ensures all participants have access to the same factual information before final settlement.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market over the coming week. Major announcements from Elon or his companies, product launches, regulatory developments, or significant news cycles often trigger trading surges as participants reassess probabilities. Social media trends and viral moments can also influence expectations about what he might post. Early in the week, uncertainty is typically highest, so odds may swing sharply as new information emerges. As the week progresses and fewer days remain, the market tends to narrow around the most likely outcomes. Real-time monitoring of tech news, Tesla developments, and Elon's historical posting patterns can help traders anticipate these shifts.
