TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Sam / Altman
- Polymarket
Sam / Altman - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 31, 2026
Latest in Social
Closed: Aug 29, 9:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group tracks Elon Musk's social media activity on X (formerly Twitter) for the week of August 24-30, 2026. Markets cover binary outcomes for specific keyword mentions and range-based tweet volume predictions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets share identical resolution criteria regarding post authenticity, content qualification rules, and time-bound counting parameters.Primary resolution logic: X (twitter.com/elonmusk) as primary source, with predict.fun/x/elonmusk as secondary verification for tweet countsCore resolution logic:
- Only posts from @elonmusk's verified X account count, regardless of URL
- Text must appear exactly as specified (no misspellings, compound words excluded)
- Media posts count only if text is clearly spelled out (not in images/gifs)
- All post types count: main feed, quotes, reposts, and qualifying replies
- Time window is August 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET to August 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Deleted Posts: Count if available during tracking period per predict.fun rules
- Reply Chains: Only count if entire chain originates from @elonmusk
- Hashtags/Symbols: Do not disqualify terms (e.g., #Trump still counts)
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Aug 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Aug 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
