TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi differ in scope and coverage of eligible shows. Polymarket includes 22 explicit show options plus an 'Other' catch-all for any show not listed, while Kalshi covers only 15 specific shows with no explicit 'Other' option, creating potential resolution gaps if an unlisted show ranks #1.Hero Tip:
If you believe an unlisted show (not appearing on either platform's explicit list) will be #1 on March 31, 2026, bet the Polymarket 'Other' option—Kalshi has no equivalent safety valve and may face ambiguous resolution. Conversely, if you are confident the #1 show is one of the 15 Kalshi options, both platforms should resolve identically for that outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket provides 21 named show options plus an explicit 'Other' catch-all ('Will another show be the top US Netflix show this week?'), ensuring every possible outcome has a defined resolution path. The market states 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other,' providing a fallback for non-occurrence.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi lists 15 specific show options (Bridgerton: Season 4, ONE PIECE: Season 2, The TikTok Killer, A Friend a Murderer, Age of Attraction, Virgin River: Season 7, Love Is Blind: The Reunion, The Dinosaurs, Raw: 2026, Derrick Stroup, Dynasty: The Murdochs, Mark Rober's CrunchLabs, Beauty in Black: Season 2, MLB Opening Night, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen) with no explicit 'Other' or fallback option, leaving resolution ambiguous if the #1 show is not on this list.
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