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405,232

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2,693

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5

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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Volume:
$154,649

Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,750
N/A
N/A
$12,225
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
13.9¢
N/A
$1,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Crew Girl: Season 1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,690
N/A
N/A
$22,663
Settled
No
polymarket

Crew Girl: Season 1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,528
N/A
N/A
$30,527
Settled
No
polymarket

Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Beauty in Black: Season 3

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,920
N/A
N/A
$25,920
Settled
No
kalshi

The Gentlemen: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,898
N/A
N/A
$17,898
Settled
No
polymarket

The Gentlemen: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Earle Meets World: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,172
N/A
N/A
$6,172
Settled
No
kalshi

Ms. Rachel: Season 1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,380
N/A
N/A
$4,380
Settled
No
kalshi

I Survived a Serial Killer: Season 1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,697
N/A
N/A
$3,697
Settled
No
polymarket

I Survived a Serial Killer: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Instadocs: The Decoy Plane

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,504
N/A
N/A
$3,504
Settled
No
kalshi

The Gentlemen: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,218
N/A
N/A
$3,218
Settled
No
kalshi

Raw: 2026 - September 7, 2026

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,255
N/A
N/A
$2,255
Settled
No
kalshi

The Doll: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,633
N/A
N/A
$1,632
Settled
No
kalshi

Danny Go!: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,625
N/A
N/A
$1,625
Settled
No
kalshi

Stranger Things: Tales From 85: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
$554
Settled
No
polymarket

Jo Koy: Blue in the Face

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

This group asks forecasters to predict which Netflix show will be the most popular in the US during a given week. Resolution will be based on the official Netflix Top 10 list, tracking total views within the United States.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi creates multiple binary markets for each show, while Polymarket focuses on single-winner markets. This introduces SKU risk and differing probabilities.Hero tip: Be mindful that a 'Yes' outcome on Kalshi doesn't preclude another show from being #1. Polymarket offers a more direct prediction of the single top show.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to YES if a specific show is #1, with an alphabetical tiebreaker. Includes an 'Other' resolution if the Netflix Top 10 update is delayed.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to YES if a specific show is #1. Multiple markets exist, one for each potential show. No 'Other' resolution is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether a specified show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on September 22, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication. All markets explicitly state that Netflix has not endorsed these products, and any references to Netflix are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by Netflix.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically rely on historical data, industry reports, and subjective assessments, while this market represents the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. These traders actively weigh information and adjust their positions based on new developments, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the real-time price discovery in this market can provide a unique and dynamic signal about the likely outcome. The current volume of $154,649 suggests strong engagement with this predictive process.